H/T to Riz din
Have a good weekend! Enjoy!
by Gav 2 Comments
H/T to Riz din
Have a good weekend! Enjoy!
by Gav
I received an email from a lady who is working in a bank. Pretty interesting explanation of current market condition though.
If anyone has difficulty understanding the current world financial situation and shoring up the banks, the following may help….
Once upon a time in a village, a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10.
The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10, but, as the supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts.
The man further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and then started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
Theman now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now act as buyer, on his behalf.
In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: ‘Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50.’
The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the monkeys.
Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys everywhere! Welcome to WALL STREET.
Here is another chart of a hell. Rogers International Commodity index shows a pretty clear picture of commodities markets at the moment. Bear in mind, crude oil weights 21% while Gold weights 3% in this index.
[photopress:RogersIntCommodity.jpg,full,1]
This chart is to show how carry trade strategy is being hurt badly this year. Price of PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV) has lost, roughly, around -25% (from 27-ish to 20-ish) This is likely going to be a shitty year for carry traders.
Here is the….CHART!
[photopress:DBV_carry_Trade.jpg,full,1]
by Gav 15 Comments
[photopress:aussie_monthly.gif,full,1]
We know Australian dollar is losing its ground recently. It is, in fact, the worst-performed currency in Asia Pacific for year 2008. (It reminds me, it used to be the top performer not long ago 😆 )
I had a look at monthly chart to have a view and feel how bad is the situation right now. Basically, market is wiping out all the gains since Howard government, and the years-long economy honey moon since, approximately, year 2001.
If the currency reflects the economy condition of a country, here is a “chart view” of Aussie economy.
The poor (unlucky ?) Labor party, Mr. Kevin Rudd takes over Australia at the “right time”. Soon after Labour party in charge, we have economy slow down, then collapse of Australia dollar to 5-year low. In short, he takes over Australia at the TOP, well, short term TOP and historical resistance zone. (John Howard took over at the bottom, and support zone though). This cycle should be very close to commodity cycle.
So now, the interesting part is, are we heading back to the previous bottom? or are we able to bounce from this “retracement”? I feel, this will also indicate the duration of Labor party staying in power…
Just my random rant.
OH Crap. AUDUSD falls below 0.75 for the first time in 2 years. Stock market took a tumble. All ordinaries lost around -3.3% today. What’s going on? On the paper, the reason, as expected, “people are expecting a 50bp rate cut tomorrow”. Well, probably. Anyway, it is indeed a bad day.
Here are some random thoughts..
It is a mess in the Aussie markets. Well, at least , in my point of view. People are panic, they are guessing, or even expecting Australia to be hit by the same shitty condition like America. Government is putting a rescue package in front. The past glorious years have made a lot of Aussie allocating a big portion of their wealth heavily in stocks market. Not to mentioned the crappy Superannuation. Experts on the TV are still advising the dads & mums investor to hold on their positions.
Anyway, I can’t see it clearly now. I don’t have a clear plan to work in this market condition. Uhm..so I guess, I will be better off staying aside. Am I too slow or not ‘intelligent’ enough to profit from this market condition? uhm…probably.
But, it is good to be safe, and holding cash at the moment…I guess.