I read
“Dollar gains as recession slashes trade deficit”.
Fine. But, stronger dollar does not help export either.So,what does this trade deficit mean to you? Nothing much, I guess.
Thoughts from trading strategy development
One of my regular trading related work is constantly researching and creating trading strategies for my trading tool box. It is an interesting job. The programming, testing, and debugging are painful and sometimes, mind wrecking :-). But, it is still considered as mechanical effort, since we have the strategy, rules, the work is just translating it into codes.
The most interesting and tricky part that I have found is the process of developing the strategy.
There are always similar questions like,
“Why did the strategy did not catch this sell off?”
“Is the criteria too strict and missing out opportunities?”
“What should I do to avoid this loss due to choppy condition?”
So on….
Seriously, there is no absolute answer for these questions. The end result of trying to answer them will be nothing but curve fitting.
If there is one thing we must learn before developing a trading strategy is to accept the non-perfectness of it. Face it, no strategy or system is perfect. One should never try to “fine tune” or expect his system/strategy to fit all market conditions. You will have losses. You will have draw down. You might not agree with me, but that’s true. I hope this statement is hard enough to make you quit trading or at least quit developing your own system. 😆
The key point is to first understand the nature of your strategy. Be it a trend following, a range bound top/bottom picking or contrarian strategies, whatever. Understand it, accept the fact that losses will be there. There will be situation that your strategy does not work. And , also, the strategy should be developed in line with your own personality, ok, I am not going into it, but you got the point.
A simple rule I am using when developing a strategy or a system is to have positive expectancy with acceptable accuracy (winning rate). OK, I hear some people shouting about accuracy is not important as long as we have good positive expectancy. Well, it depends. Weak hearted small traders, are you really able to take the 70% failure of your system though you know it is having a positive expectancy in long run? You might be killed mentally. For more about this topic, read about my old post here .
Alright, that’s all . Just another piece of my random rant. I am going back to fix my program bug now….
And , yeah, once you’ve done, start live trading with extremely small position. You will be surprised. 🙂
Bearish week for Euro?
I am wondering are we heading to a negative week for Euro? At least my trading idea box is calling a short now. We have Euro-Zone Industrial Production, CPI, Trade Balance figures etc coming. Generally, it looks bearish. Let’s see how it goes.
Let’s have a look at the chart. (click to view full chart)
Here is the statistics
Short quote and thought
When trying to figure out which economic data is important right now..
It is all about putting yourself in the shoes of the central bank governor and thinking about what problems are most pressing
Weekly wrap up
I would say it was a little bit tricky this week. The RDT system went Long and short on EURJPY, Long NZDUSD, both were doing pretty good, except the Long EURJPY, which was a crap with -1R loss. GBPUSD was a discretionary trade. It didn’t meet the RDT system criteria, so the system gave it a miss. The rest of the week, I did some discretionary trades, which were not impressive at all.
Having a semi automated entry system helps. It saves me a lot of chart screening time. And it tortured me as well. 😆 It takes really great patience to sit down and wait for the signal. I started some discretionary trade this week, when I was waiting for RDT signal. That was not a right choice. I should have spent the time reading instead of trying to show my brilliance (foolishness in fact) in the market.
So far so good for automation project. I am working on coding steps size trailing stops. I am doing it manually now to trail stops. I can feel the aging effect inside me. I am getting slower now when figuring out some program logic. Probably, I need more practice to gain my sharpness. I am still waiting for my new PC to arrive. I purchased one on ebay to host my ATS program. Running the program on my laptop day and night is not a wise choice.
It’s all good. My system is still on, let’s see if I’ll have any trade on Friday.
Morning spike..AUDCAD
I thought this is interesting. OK, AUDCAD is a exotic pair, and spreads are huge. But this does not seem to be a bad tick. This happened in most of brokers as well. I guess it killed a lot of bulls who are shorting CAD in this pair with the fact that oil just had a bad day. Who’s the mastermind of this spike? Interesting…
Well this is a useless chart. Just for fun. Don’t waste your time to figure out the strategy to trade this… 😆
