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AUDUSD

Black Aussie Monday

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OH Crap.  AUDUSD falls below 0.75 for the first time in 2 years. Stock market took a tumble. All ordinaries lost around -3.3% today. What’s going on? On the paper, the reason, as expected, “people are expecting a 50bp rate cut tomorrow”. Well, probably. Anyway, it is indeed a bad day.

Here are some random thoughts..

It is a mess in the Aussie markets. Well, at least , in my point of view.  People are panic, they are guessing, or even expecting Australia to be hit by the same shitty condition like America. Government is putting a rescue package in front. The past glorious years have made a lot of Aussie allocating a big portion of their wealth heavily in stocks market. Not to mentioned the crappy Superannuation. Experts on the TV are still advising the dads & mums investor to hold on their positions.

Anyway, I can’t see it clearly now.  I don’t have a clear plan to work in this market condition. Uhm..so I guess, I will be better off staying aside. Am I too slow or not ‘intelligent’ enough to profit from this market condition? uhm…probably.

But, it is good to be safe, and holding cash at the moment…I guess.

What’s up? Aussie, aussie, aussie, oi oi oi

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So, the House decided not to save the rich-men World. Dow index collapsed 777 points. Gold rallies now. But, where is Aussie dollar going? Decoupling from Gold movement? Australia is one of the largest gold exporters. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee the prosperity of australian dollar.

But, what exactly is the problem of Australia economy? OK,It stalls now. Well, some banks have some shitty involvements in America. Economic figures are not signaling disaster at the moment. There might be some shitty underneath, but, at the moment, I see this as panic selling. And I for one, do not believe in USD rally.

Technically, we are still sitting on the weekly support line. With support of the Gold. I am putting a small long position of Aussie dollar now. As usual I can be very very wrong, but I want the market to prove me wrong.

Another look at Aussie dollar…uhm..is it time now?

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It has been a painful journey for Aussie bulls. Weaker commodities, strong dollar ..whatever, you’ve read it on the papers. I have been following it all this time. Here are some observations. Is Dollar hitting resistance now? Are Aussie and Gold reaching support now? uhm… What do ya think?

Here are the ….CHARTS!

Dollar Index

[photopress:DXweekly.jpg,full,1]

Gold

[photopress:Goldspotweekly.jpg,full,1]

AUDUSD

[photopress:AUDUSDweekly.jpg,full,1]

Charts and data provided by Market Club

Leave Aussie alone…

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Oh crap. That’s the term I used the most last week. :lol:. Man, Aussie dollar was breaking down again and again. It broke my 0.93 support, and now trading below 0.90. Holy smoke… 😆

I did not make money from shorting Aussie dollar last week. The excuse I am going to use is…I was darn busy with my day job. What a crappy excuse, isn’t it? 🙂  .. Nah, the fact is , my trading style tends to hold the position for a longer period, and negative interest position is not a good idea for me. So, I would rather stay away from the market.

Is next week a good time to short Aussie? I don’t think so. Well, at least I am not doing that. We have RBA monetary policy statement coming. But, don’t you think the on plate interest rate cut has already been priced in? Expect a volatile week, I am not trading. I would rather spend my time watching Olympics Games.

Here is the…..CHART!

[photopress:aussie_daily.gif,full,1]

Some statistics

[photopress:aussie_daily_trend.jpg,full,1]

About this tool

Here is the ETF ,CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)

[photopress:FXA.jpg,full,1]

Chart is generated by Tradecision.

Worries in Aussie?

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Is Australia heading to recession? Some said next 3 months are crucial…

Think of it like this: we are in a car that has been braking sharply as a result of higher interest rates, higher petrol prices, diminishing household wealth and fear of what might lie ahead. Now the car has slowed sharply, the question is whether we, the decision-makers of the economy, keep our foot on the brake, and slow down even further, or release it to keep cruising at our present speed.

The Reserve’s goal was the latter: if Australia’s growth in output slows to about 2.5% — 2% excluding farms and mining — it believes inflation will gradually crawl back within its target zone of 2% to 3%.

Are the decision-makers, the good driver? Not too sure.

Full article from TheAge.com

Is it time now?uhm…AUDUSD

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Ok, first rule, I am only looking at the Long side of Aussie dollar (AUDUSD) and GOLD. Are we going to have rate cut in the coming month? Nah, I don’t think so. In fact, I have no idea what on earth is the new government doing now. Whatever…

Anyway, for trading purposes, I feel 0.96-ish is a pretty nice Long entry zone. I am waiting for entry setup to form.

Here is the …. CHART!

[photopress:audusddaily.gif,full,1]

Here’s the statistics

[photopress:audusddaily_trend_1.jpg,full,1]

About this tool

[photopress:golddaily_1.gif,full,1]

Here’s the statics

[photopress:Golddaily_trend_1.jpg,full,1]

About this tool