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Trading Journal

Weekly Review of spot GOLD (XAUUSD) 16 AUG 2013

by Gav 1 Comment

Here is the quick chart review of spot GOLD XAUUSD.  You can also find last week’s chart review here.

The best way to understand the movement is to look at the charts in multiple time frame. The charts basically explain everything. I will just try to give brief descriptions.

On Thursday, Gold broke away from  resistance level 1347.83, the immediate target is seen at 1392/98.

Here is the Daily Chart with key levels marked.

spot GOLD Daily chart
spot GOLD Daily chart

Looking into 4-hour time frame, we can find some details about the price movement. Last week, we saw the break of down trend line, and also the resistance level around 1316.22. The best opportunity,and more conservative way to enter a long trade is to wait for the pull back to the broken resistance level. As shown in the chart, price respected the level 1316.22, and made another run to the upside after retesting the level.

Here is the 4-hour chart with key levels marked.

spot GOLD XAUUSD 4-hour chart
spot GOLD XAUUSD 4-hour chart

Here is the H1 charts with more detailed trend lines. I won’t go into too much details about the trend lines, probably in other posts.  Just to show that there are trading opportunities around the identified support and resistance levels.

spot GOLD XAUUSD 1-hour chart
spot GOLD XAUUSD 1-hour chart

That’s it. Just a quick  chart review. Hope it helps or at least, the lines did not confuse you.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

 

RSS Feed migration: Just a quick reminder to those who subscribed to RSS feed of this site prior JULY 2013. I will be switching off Feedburner email delivery this weekend. You should be receiving an email to inform you about new email subscription (via Aweber).

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Filed Under: headline post, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

One USDJPY trade 12 August 2013

by Gav Leave a Comment

Just a quick post of one of the trades I made yesterday. I thought it might provide some educational value to my now 13 readers.

I went long of USDJPY around mid London session yesterday. My entry was not the best I would like to have.  I saw a small consolidation cluster around 96.75 , and it, in fact, broke the inner trend line. (Refer to the blue bold line in the chart below).  My view was, the consolidation above inner trend line might potentially be a launch pad for a upward movement.  Well, it dipped a couples of hours later, but never go beyond 50% retracement of the current swing. Stop loss was not triggered.

In retrospect, the dipped after my entry was indeed a retest of another broken down trend line and support level. In hindsight, this is a better entry, but hey,that’s trading, and everything looks better in hindsight, no?

Target is set at 97.40. This is the price projection measured by using the Fibonacci extension of 161.8, golden ratio, of the lowest swing low to the break of inner trend line.  The target was achieved during Tuesday Asian morning session.

2nd target is set at measured move up to around 97.80 which is also a resistance level.

Here is the 1-hour chart of USDJPY.

USDJPY 1-hour chart
USDJPY 1-hour chart

I suggest to have a look at Steve’s NBT posts for the concepts of price projections for target setting.

That’s it for now. Have a good trading week ahead!

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: headline post, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

Levels trading tips from hindsight analysis

by Gav Leave a Comment

First of all, AUDUSD approached 0.9130/40 resistance level. This is a daily level, and price reacted and immediately pulled back to intraday (hourly) support level 0.9085. If you managed to get in short position at the first test of 9130 level, the setup should give you around 1 R at 0.9085. (Unless you used a ridiculous tight stop, then you might get more of it..but, heck, it doesn’t make too much sense to me)

Here is the hour chart of AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1-hour chart 09 August 2013
AUDUSD 1-hour chart 09 August 2013

In case you’ve missed the first train of selling, I would prefer to wait for the break of 9085 and enter at the pull back to this level. It can be a rounded retest or immediate retest (read my butt kiss setup).

In addition, if you  noticed starting from mid-0.89 down to mid-0.88  there was an accumulation/distribution pattern, and also can bee seen as  multiple taps formation. Refer to the purple dash lines in the chart. 0.8943 was the decision level for this pattern, once it was broken, pull back to this level provided a valid long entry. With target set at slightly above 90 cents, it provided 1:2 risk reward ratio.

Our good friend, Steve at NoBrainertrades.com wrote an awesome blog post yesterday The Decision Making Plan – An Alternative Process to Trade Entry. In his PREP decision making process, the 1st action before starting a position is to identify profit target, identify where we are getting out of the trade. It makes total sense to me. Spend some time and read it.

We know price will normally react at the level, but the question is always, how far will it go. So, it is important to know where to enter a trade, it is even more important to have price projection, i.e where do you expect price to reach from here.

Hope you have a great week so far.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: blogs, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

Weekly Review of GOLD (XAUUSD) 08 AUG 2013

by Gav Leave a Comment

Here is the weekly review of spot GOLD XAUUSD levels. You can last week’s chart review in this post.

GOLD reacted at the resistance level and also 50% retracement of D1 down leg. 1347.57 is now the level to watch for any false break should price retrace back to this high. Overall, GOLD is contained in the Daily down channel. The key levels to watch now are 1297.55 for resistance and 1268.40/1272.22 for support.

Here is the Daily Chart of spot GOLD

GOLD Daily Chart
GOLD Daily Chart

In 4-Hour time frame,  I am watching closely is the potential break up of the H4 down channel. Refer to the 4-hour chart below, a break of this channel, and 1297.55 might bring us back to 1347.57 as mentioned before. On the hand, a break of support level 1268.40/1272.22, I will be looking at potential short setup at the pull back.

GOLD 4-Hour Chart
GOLD 4-Hour Chart

That’s all for this post.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: headline post, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

Some levels trading lesson from USDJPY

by Gav Leave a Comment

I thought I will write a quick follow up of the USDJPY development. Well, in the bigger picture, price is still trading within the channel as shown in my previous post Here and Here. However, there are some developments in Hourly time frame which I can use to show how I approach the levels. This is definitely not a post to show off how many hundreds of micro, nano pips that I have gained nor to whine about missing/losing trades.

Anyway, I have annotate the chart with my comments. Hopefully it helps some of my 12 readers.

The key notes here are:

  • The importance of observing on-going price development A valid level is not taken due to risk/reward ratio has been compromised. This happens when a price does not continue selling (or buying) as expected, instead it creates a base with forming new support and resistance levels.
  • When a level is not the strongest according to our plan, always look for more confluence factors.

Here is the hourly chart of USDJPY (click to magnify the chart)

USDJPY 1-Hour chart 06 August 2013
USDJPY 1-Hour chart 06 August 2013

Leave me a comment for any question you might have.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

My Harmonic trading guide

by Gav 3 Comments

I have been posting some harmonic setups over the years, I thought maybe a simple harmonic trading guide might help readers who are following this type of trading. For the harmonic patterns I am using, there are some Fibonacci ratios to follow. They might look complicated, but they are not. Once you get the hang of them, it is not too difficult to identify.

One of the important things to note is, I do not trading harmonic patterns exclusively. The patterns are used as an aid to my over analysis, an odd enhancer you may say.

Secondly, I prefer to look at harmonic patterns in higher time time frames, such as 4 hours and daily. This is not to say the patterns do no work in lower time frame, it is just personal preference. I found that the patterns work well in medium to longer term swing trading.

For the start, harmonic patterns are divided into two categories, Extension patterns and Retracement patterns.

  • Extension patterns are Bullish Butterfly, Bearish Butterfly, Bullish Crab and Bearish Crab.
  • Retracement patterns are Bullish Gartley, Bearish Gartley, Bullish Bat and Bearish Bat.

These are the patterns that I used, and the list is not exhaustive. The “hardcore” harmonic traders might look at more patterns such as 5-0, Shark etc and in more time frames.

So here are the key factors I am looking at when using harmonic patterns

  • Identify key market levels, in other words, key support resistance levels. This one of the MOST important step.
  • Identify established price channel. A channel also represent the current trend, applying the appropriate patterns to follow the trend.

Harmonic Trading Guide

Below are the patterns with respective Fibonacci ratios. I also prepared two simple cheat sheets in PDF forms for readers who would prefer to print it out.

Harmonic Trading Guide - TraderGav.com
Harmonic Extension patterns
Harmonic Retracement patterns
Harmonic Retracement patterns

My opinion about harmonic trading is, Do Not Complicate things. Keep it simple, be clear with what you are doing, are you using the patterns as entry trigger? or are you using them for directional bias setting (I will discuss more on this in the future posts),  and, as always, make sure the patterns are forming in the right place, i.e key levels or channels.

Here are the cheat-sheets in PDF format that I have prepared in case you prefer a printout.

Extension patterns

Retracement patterns

You can also find my harmonic setups/charts in Harmonic trading posts section

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: blogs, Harmonic setups, Learn Trading

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