Boo…what a lousy day. I was watching all dollar pairs closely and finally I saw a nice dummy setup form in USD/JPY. As mentioned in my last post, I hesitate to trade any dollar pair before NFP. I decided to take the trade, with smaller than normal R. Well, just as expected, nothing much happened. I closed the trade at break even. End the day with 0 R.

About NFP (Non Farm payroll) , here is something from newsletter of a forex broker. It says

August’s Non Farm numbers threw the market into a spin with the first negative number seen since August 2003. The markets will be watching this Friday morning to see if the dip in August was a temporary blip or if the downward trend will continue. This report will most certainly play a key role in whether the Fed will ease again later this month. As expected, analysts are split this month, some predicting significant rebounds and others remaining extremely cautious. One thing is certain, tomorrow’s numbers will be closely watched by all.

Key factors thought to influence this months Non-Farm Payroll report include:
– Watch for revisions to leave a positive gain in August (-4,000)
– Smaller expected declines in manufacturing after the -46,000 August drop
– Private service payrolls expected to show close to 100,000 gain
– Unemployment expected to rise to 4.7%

The Labor Department reported, in the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 317,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 301,000. The 4-week moving average was 312,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average of 312,250.

I am not a news trader, but it is important to know how does the over all market develop, fundamentally.

I did not trade on Wednesday.Partly because of busy with non trading stuffs, and can’t find any convincing setup. Generally, Dollar is in recovering mood now, and looks pretty strong ahead of Non Farm payroll. People are expecting a strong payroll report. Well, to me, the rule is simple. I am watching closely but not trading any Dollar pair at the moment, until NFP is released. (uhm..guess, what am I going to trade then?) 😀

I am thinking to get the book Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game, if you have read it, please shoot me a comment.

I made two trades today. Long EUR/JPY which was later stopped out with -1R.  It was pretty choppy throughout the Asian session. Second trade was made during U.K session, Long GBP/USD.  It was a very slow and choppy trade. I left my stop loss order on and went to bed. I closed the position with +0.38 R around lunch hour of U.S session (2 am in Melbourne, Australia).

End the day with -0.62 R.

We have Aussie Interest rate statement released today. Most likely they are going to hold on with 6.5% at the moment.  General Election is coming soon, I am wondering what would the current government do with the economic rates and figures now. Interesting. :-p

I was not available to watch the market yesterday due to my busy day job. No trade was made. I missed the move of NZD/USD and EUR/JPY in the Asian afternoon. I do not incline to put on any day trade in Monday morning (Australian hours) as spreads are normally still in ‘holiday mood’, too wide to be stomached by day trader. Things will normally get back to normal when Japanese market is opened (that’s 10am in Melbourne, Australia).

Well, no trade, no R. Btw, my gut feeling tells me I will be living in the world where 1 AUD= 1 USD soon….uhm, time to plan for a vacation in Miami ? 😎

Another strong week for Aussie dollar (Stronger than I’d expected!). We are back to the 1989 high again. Lovely.  Well, are we looking at the high at 1984 around 0.97 soon? uhm..never underestimate currency market, nothing is impossible. Anyway, I will still day trade in Long position at the moment, but I will be a little bit stricter now. I am watching 0.8830-5 area.

Let’s see.

[photopress:audusd_daily28sep2007.gif,full,alignleft]

Here is another pair that I am watching closely recently. EUR/JPY. I am going for Long position.

[photopress:eurjpy_daily28sep2007.gif,full,alignleft]

After the “kinda frustrated..” day, I am having a “kinda happy” day. I have finally achieved my 100-pips day. In fact, I am up 200 pips today.
It is time for me to get my MP3 player, it was the reward I set for myself when I achieve a 100 pips day.(still IPod or Creative Zen?..)

A hit or miss game
I was surprised by the sell off of GBP crosses. I mean, I was surprised by the speed of sell off. I woke up in the morning with full of confidence to short GBP/JPY, and of course, my darling GBP/USD. I was trying to Long EUR/JPY as well. There were some buying during Sydney hours , but tone changed when Japanese was greeting Ohiyo(Good morning in Japanese, in case you are confused) to the Forex market.

I found myself exiting position prematurely yesterday due to some fears in me. I knew it was a mistake and a problem. Today I decided to close my trading screen after putting in profit target and stop loss orders. Long EUR/JPY was stopped out, and I went short at the same time.
Market was in selling mood, so all short positions were covered by take profit orders.

More works need to be done.
I am not sure if I can close the week with positive note, but I am pretty comfortable now, I have figured out a lot of problems and refining my trading plan along the way. It takes tons of effort to study and refining strategy. It is really a different game to me. What works for me in futures market , hurts me in Forex market. Anyways, I am enjoying the learning process, and of course, the pips.

May the pips be with you.

Oh I forgot to mention ” The real man trades Futures, his son trades Forex, I am trading both, for my wife” 🙂