Boo…what a lousy day. I was watching all dollar pairs closely and finally I saw a nice dummy setup form in USD/JPY. As mentioned in my last post, I hesitate to trade any dollar pair before NFP. I decided to take the trade, with smaller than normal R. Well, just as expected, nothing much happened. I closed the trade at break even. End the day with 0 R.
About NFP (Non Farm payroll) , here is something from newsletter of a forex broker. It says
August’s Non Farm numbers threw the market into a spin with the first negative number seen since August 2003. The markets will be watching this Friday morning to see if the dip in August was a temporary blip or if the downward trend will continue. This report will most certainly play a key role in whether the Fed will ease again later this month. As expected, analysts are split this month, some predicting significant rebounds and others remaining extremely cautious. One thing is certain, tomorrow’s numbers will be closely watched by all.
Key factors thought to influence this months Non-Farm Payroll report include:
– Watch for revisions to leave a positive gain in August (-4,000)
– Smaller expected declines in manufacturing after the -46,000 August drop
– Private service payrolls expected to show close to 100,000 gain
– Unemployment expected to rise to 4.7%
The Labor Department reported, in the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 317,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 301,000. The 4-week moving average was 312,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average of 312,250.
I am not a news trader, but it is important to know how does the over all market develop, fundamentally.