I have not completed my 100 trades of dummy trading, so it is still too early to do statistical analysis. But i think it is appropriate to review my progress and decide my next step. I had bad days since end of August. Looking at the performance chart since 01-August-2006 to 18-Oct-2006, ugly?, I think so. my accumulated R has been dropping.
Overall, system expectancy fell to 0.09 and accuracy is around 45%. But then , it is still too early to analyze these figures.
After reviewing the result I have identify some problems:
- Personal problems during September had created some troubles to my life as well as my trading
- Lack of discipline. There were times, I was anxious to trade, and breaking rules.
- Dummy entry is not only about reversal up/bar and inside bar. Market trend and intraday market tone are important prerequisites. I did not do enough for this part.
- Trying out multiple positions concurrently. Obviously, I am not good enough at this, yet.
- Without a profit target for each trade. Basically, I did not know where to exit the position in order to protect profit. For many instances in my life, I do not do well when I do not have a target. This problem appears in my trading now.
Here are steps I have taken to improve.
- I have reduced my risk level from from maximum 1.25% to 0.76%. So now I am more careful and particular in choosing real low risk dummy entry.
- Maximum 2 opened positions concurrently.
- Learn to be really patient. It is absolutely fine to sit with cash if there is no low risk entry.
- Setting minimum profit target for each trade. I am using Fib extension levels to determine exit point now.
It seems like I am such a big dummy fan huh. Well, I believe in controling risk. As long as I keep my risk exposure in check, walking through the bad days, I will be the last one to laugh. Dummy spot just suits my risk appetitie so well. I will start exploring more strategies when I have achieved consistency in my trading performance.
Be a better trader.