Stop and look back

by Gav 2006-10-19T08:01:05Z

I have not completed my 100 trades of dummy trading, so it is still too early to do statistical analysis. But i think it is appropriate to review my progress and decide my next step. I had bad days since end of August. Looking at the performance chart since 01-August-2006 to 18-Oct-2006, ugly?, I think so. my accumulated R has been dropping.
Overall, system expectancy fell to 0.09 and accuracy is around 45%. But then , it is still too early to analyze these figures.

After reviewing the result I have identify some problems:

Personal problems during September had created some troubles to my life as well as my trading

Lack of discipline. There were times, I was anxious to trade, and breaking rules.

Dummy entry is not only about reversal up/bar and inside bar. Market trend and intraday market tone are important prerequisites. I did not do enough for this part.

Trying out multiple positions concurrently. Obviously, I am not good enough at this, yet.

Without a profit target for each trade. Basically, I did not know where to exit the position in order to protect profit. For many instances in my life, I do not do well when I do not have a target. This problem appears in my trading now.

Here are steps I have taken to improve.

I have reduced my risk level from from maximum 1.25% to 0.76%. So now I am more careful and particular in choosing real low risk dummy entry.

Maximum 2 opened positions concurrently.

Learn to be really patient. It is absolutely fine to sit with cash if there is no low risk entry.

Setting minimum profit target for each trade. I am using Fib extension levels to determine exit point now.

It seems like I am such a big dummy fan huh. Well, I believe in controling risk. As long as I keep my risk exposure in check, walking through the bad days, I will be the last one to laugh. Dummy spot just suits my risk appetitie so well. I will start exploring more strategies when I have achieved consistency in my trading performance.

Be a better trader.

Comments

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John2006-10-19 10:54:00 UTC
you could have written that about me...everything you wrote applies to me as well...great post
John2006-10-19 10:54:31 UTC
you could have written that about me...everything you wrote applies to me as well...great post
Gav2006-10-19 11:52:00 UTC
John, the key point is to keep our head and spirit up. Bad days are part of the game. Manage our risk, we will get back on track soon.
Gav2006-10-19 11:52:22 UTC
John, the key point is to keep our head and spirit up. Bad days are part of the game. Manage our risk, we will get back on track soon.
John2006-10-19 15:33:00 UTC
well said
John2006-10-19 15:33:40 UTC
well said
estocastica2006-10-19 16:17:00 UTC
I enjoyed this post as well. Thanks.
estocastica2006-10-19 16:17:24 UTC
I enjoyed this post as well. Thanks.
Invest Insight2006-10-19 16:25:00 UTC
It's impressive enough that you could go 100 days trading dummy. Without the real presence of money most people would had just gave up or not know what to do. Keep going! Would like to see your final analysis.
Invest Insight2006-10-19 16:25:08 UTC
It's impressive enough that you could go 100 days trading dummy. Without the real presence of money most people would had just gave up or not know what to do. Keep going! Would like to see your final analysis.
Gav2006-10-19 16:37:00 UTC
Estocastica, Thanks for your comment. Invest Insight, Thanks for your comment. I am a small account trader. But dummy requires small R, that's why I can continue even during bad days. I will do an analysis again when I complete 60th dummy trades. It is not to analyse effectiveness of dummy, but my own trading performance. Have a good one.
Gav2006-10-19 16:37:50 UTC
Estocastica, Thanks for your comment. Invest Insight, Thanks for your comment. I am a small account trader. But dummy requires small R, that's why I can continue even during bad days. I will do an analysis again when I complete 60th dummy trades. It is not to analyse effectiveness of dummy, but my own trading performance. Have a good one.
ZBS2006-10-19 18:21:00 UTC
Gav, Great post. It's always best to learn something from ourselve's past experience as that's unique. ZBS
ZBS2006-10-19 21:21:00 UTC
Gav, Great post. It's always best to learn something from ourselve's past experience as that's unique. ZBS
Gav2006-10-19 22:48:00 UTC
ZBS, Thanks for your comment. I like to know my current state (good or bad) before moving my next step. Have a profitable day, Gav
Gav2006-10-19 22:48:37 UTC
ZBS, Thanks for your comment. I like to know my current state (good or bad) before moving my next step. Have a profitable day, Gav
Tom2006-10-20 00:25:00 UTC
TG: I think you've identified the problems and have become aware of them. Once that happens you'll be able to fix 'em and return to making $$$. This is a great post cause its honest. Cheers!
Tom2006-10-20 00:25:28 UTC
TG: I think you've identified the problems and have become aware of them. Once that happens you'll be able to fix 'em and return to making $$$. This is a great post cause its honest. Cheers!
Gav2006-10-20 00:38:00 UTC
Tom: Thanks for your comment and encouragement. Have a good day.
Gav2006-10-20 00:38:45 UTC
Tom: Thanks for your comment and encouragement. Have a good day.
Zoomie2006-10-22 04:00:00 UTC
Those results are pretty good from my experience. You are off to a better start than I was after the same amount of trades. I now have 1 year 3 months dummy trading under my belt. If you can break even already, I would say profitability is just around the corner. Thanks for sharing!
Zoomie2006-10-22 04:00:54 UTC
Those results are pretty good from my experience. You are off to a better start than I was after the same amount of trades. I now have 1 year 3 months dummy trading under my belt. If you can break even already, I would say profitability is just around the corner. Thanks for sharing!
Gav2006-10-22 05:18:00 UTC
Zoomie, Thanks for your comment and encouragement! I am now at the stage of break even, (well, with a little profit in fact, the bad days basically ate up some of my profits). I am now watching very closely the quality of each trade I am taking. Have a profitable week ahead. Gav
Gav2006-10-22 05:18:11 UTC
Zoomie, Thanks for your comment and encouragement! I am now at the stage of break even, (well, with a little profit in fact, the bad days basically ate up some of my profits). I am now watching very closely the quality of each trade I am taking. Have a profitable week ahead. Gav

Stop and look back

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