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Gav's trading blog - Perseverance, Consistency, Confidence

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blogs

Burn the boats

by Gav Leave a Comment

Here is the latest addition to the “Videos worth watching” collection.

Burn the boats! by Andy Andrews

In February 1519, Hernando Cortez set sail on the final leg of a voyage that was to take him from Cuba, a stopover, to the shores of the Yucatán. He commanded 11 ships, with more than 500 soldiers, 100 sailors, and 16 horses, bound for Mexico to take the world’s richest treasure. The precious jewels, gold, silver, and sculptures sheltered on this limestone peninsula had been hoarded by the same army for over 600 years. As they listened, Cortez leaned in and said three simple words that changed everything: “Burn the boats.”

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Mental Games, Trading Lessons

Really Simple Rules to kick start your trading year

by Gav Leave a Comment

387432527Not another blog post of some glorious trading rules. But, here are couple of things that I have learnt (some of them, in the hard way) from the past. So , this blog post is really meant for myself as constant reminder, and maybe, help some of my 13 readers.

Stop Changing approach, Give yourself some time.

I shall admit that, I had this problem.  One of the key “discovery” of mine was really to stop changing, stop trying to “improve” something. Stick to one, during good time, and bad, master it, journal, repeat and repeat. You need time to master a skill, you need time to master a strategy, in other words, you need time to be a master of something. Stop changing approach, get good with it. You need data to analyze, you need trading records to evaluate, constant changing your approach gives you nothing to work on.

Journal it. Give yourself a chance to grow.

Face it, your memory sucks. You thought you have learnt the lesson, but after a couple of weeks, or months, memory fades. Write it down, record them, like it or not, just do it. You will need it later. Again, you will REALLY need it later. Be as detailed as possible.

Stop micro managing your position. Give your position time to work.

Give your trade time and space to develop. As matter of fact, in my day trading, I prefer let the target hit, or let the position stopped. Taking partial profit, move stop to break even etc hurts your long term expectancy if you don’t know what you are doing. Do your math, before implementing these strategies. “Feel better” is not a position management strategy. You can do better than that.

When you are not a master, stick to one market.

Even a season professional focuses on limited number of markets during the session. Face it, if you can’t make money focusing one market, your can’t make money looking at 2 at the same time. The “afraid of missing out” symptom will make you miss out more. Stay focus.

That’s it. You can always come out with another long list of rules (who doesn’t love trading rules? They are cheap), the key is really be a master. Start with the simplest thing and master it.  To end this blog post, here is the quote from Bruce lee:

I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.

Good trading.

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading

Coffee thought: Learning to drive and trading

by Gav Leave a Comment

IMG_20141025_152133_1

Here is something I thought might be helpful to some new traders.
My wife recently started her driving lesson. She is very keen to drive, but lack of confidence (and experience). Last evening, before heading out for grocery shopping, I thought it might be a good idea to let her drive while the traffic was low at that time.

She replied ” I will try later when I am more confident, and ready”.
My immediate reply was ” You will never be ready if you don’t drive”

How much screen time, readings, or even demo trading do you need before start live trading? It is good to get yourself prepared before investing your money in the market.The problem is, you will never be more ready, there is no “Right time” to start trading. I am not discounting the importance of getting the basic knowledge before start, but sometimes, we take too long to take the first step. Experienced traders will tell you, the real learning experience starts from live trading.

While I can’t promise you profitability in trading, rest assured you will discover something new every single trading day. Regardless how many books you have read, or how much time you have spent backtesting, you will be confronted with dilemmas when market moves against you swiftly, or it grinds you to death, or punches you on face with a series of losses, or it gaps so much in your “predicted” direction that makes you want to kill yourself for exiting too early etc.

You thought you are a disciplined person, maybe not. Market will tell you that. You thought you are patient, maybe not, market will test your patience. You thought you are a calm person, market will make you lose your cool soon.

The point is, you can’t buy, read, watch these experience. Put your money on the table, enjoy the challenge, learn from the challenge.

So, hope this small thought helps some of you. Meanwhile, I am going back to make sure she starts practicing driving now.

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Mental Games

Random trading thoughts : LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION

by Gav Leave a Comment

I have been putting in a great deal of time and effort in futures trading lately. From refining strategy, writing plans (scrapping plans), back testing (not your fancy automated testing, I basically replayed markets), setting up accounts, negotiate commissions etc.

The intensive process has almost burnt me out sometimes, but it is also a good chance for me to refer back to my old journals, some worth-reading trading books, and also do some deep thinkings about things.

So if you start reading some random short posts with some trading Craps/Wisdoms from me, you know I am working hard.

Anyway, here is something in my mind when I was back testing.

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION

20131101_180316In case you haven’t noticed, trading is very similar to property purchase or development, it about Location, Location, Location. (Of course, during crazy market cycle, like what is happening in Australia right now, properties at some waste lands, or crappy locations, can also be sold for a couple of hundreds thousands, who are those buyers?!, really.). But, we are looking for consistent result, and long term prospect, then location is a key consideration. This is common sense.

Would you build a house without considering the location and the surroundings?

The same applies to trading. Why would you want to trade your freaking, holy-grail like pattern in any place? Do you wonder why did your favourite chart pattern stop working? Maybe a quick refer back to your trading journal might help. Pull out the charts, figure out why it failed.

Sometimes, when things get complicated, I like to refer back to the basic. How to make a trade? The simple rule on the first page of my trading journal is Location, Path, Management. I think you can guess what are these 3 words referring to. If not, you need to spend sometimes to think about them before making your next trade.

I hope this short post gives you some food for thought.

Until next time, trade well.

 

 

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading

Levels trading tips from hindsight analysis

by Gav Leave a Comment

First of all, AUDUSD approached 0.9130/40 resistance level. This is a daily level, and price reacted and immediately pulled back to intraday (hourly) support level 0.9085. If you managed to get in short position at the first test of 9130 level, the setup should give you around 1 R at 0.9085. (Unless you used a ridiculous tight stop, then you might get more of it..but, heck, it doesn’t make too much sense to me)

Here is the hour chart of AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1-hour chart 09 August 2013
AUDUSD 1-hour chart 09 August 2013

In case you’ve missed the first train of selling, I would prefer to wait for the break of 9085 and enter at the pull back to this level. It can be a rounded retest or immediate retest (read my butt kiss setup).

In addition, if you  noticed starting from mid-0.89 down to mid-0.88  there was an accumulation/distribution pattern, and also can bee seen as  multiple taps formation. Refer to the purple dash lines in the chart. 0.8943 was the decision level for this pattern, once it was broken, pull back to this level provided a valid long entry. With target set at slightly above 90 cents, it provided 1:2 risk reward ratio.

Our good friend, Steve at NoBrainertrades.com wrote an awesome blog post yesterday The Decision Making Plan – An Alternative Process to Trade Entry. In his PREP decision making process, the 1st action before starting a position is to identify profit target, identify where we are getting out of the trade. It makes total sense to me. Spend some time and read it.

We know price will normally react at the level, but the question is always, how far will it go. So, it is important to know where to enter a trade, it is even more important to have price projection, i.e where do you expect price to reach from here.

Hope you have a great week so far.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: blogs, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

Some levels trading lesson from USDJPY

by Gav Leave a Comment

I thought I will write a quick follow up of the USDJPY development. Well, in the bigger picture, price is still trading within the channel as shown in my previous post Here and Here. However, there are some developments in Hourly time frame which I can use to show how I approach the levels. This is definitely not a post to show off how many hundreds of micro, nano pips that I have gained nor to whine about missing/losing trades.

Anyway, I have annotate the chart with my comments. Hopefully it helps some of my 12 readers.

The key notes here are:

  • The importance of observing on-going price development A valid level is not taken due to risk/reward ratio has been compromised. This happens when a price does not continue selling (or buying) as expected, instead it creates a base with forming new support and resistance levels.
  • When a level is not the strongest according to our plan, always look for more confluence factors.

Here is the hourly chart of USDJPY (click to magnify the chart)

USDJPY 1-Hour chart 06 August 2013
USDJPY 1-Hour chart 06 August 2013

Leave me a comment for any question you might have.

From the desk of TraderGav.com

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Support Resistance, Trading Journal

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