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45 ways to avoid losing money trading Forex

by Gav Leave a Comment

I found this article from a forum. It is interesting. Though I do not agree with everything he says, there are some good points.

According to the forum poster, this list was composed by Jimmy Young, who is a retired professional Bank Forex trader with over 20 years of hands-on forex trading experience.

Pretty long list, but nice read.

1) Knowledge Deficiency Most new FOREX traders don’t take the time to learn what drives currency rates (primarily fundamentals).

2) Overtrading – Trading often with tight stops and tiny profit targets will only make the broker rich. The desire to just make a few hundred dollars a day by locking in tiny profits whenever possible is a losing strategy.

3) Over leveraged – Leverage is a two way street. The brokers want you to use high leverage because that means more spread income because your position size determines the amount of spread income; the bigger the position the more spread income the broker earns.

4) Relying on Others Real traders play a lone hand; they make their own decisions and don’t rely on others to make their trading decisions for them; there is no halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else trade for you.

5) Stop Losses Putting tight stop losses with retail brokers is a recipe for disaster. When you put on a trade commit to a reasonable stop loss limit that allows your trade a fair chance to develop.

6) Demo Accounts Broker demo accounts are a shill game of sorts; they’re not as time-sensitive as real accounts and therefore give the impression that time-sensitive trading systems, such as short-term moving average crossovers can be consistently profitably traded; once you start dealing with real money, the reality is quick to set in.

7) Trading During Off Hours Bank FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds have a huge advantage during off hours; they can push the currencies around when no volume is going through and the end game is new traders get fleeced trying to trade signals. There is only one signal during off hours – stay out.

8) Trading a Currency, Not a Pair Being right about a currency is half a trade; success or failure depends upon being right about the second currency that makes up the pair.

9) No Trading Plan – ‘Make money’ is not a trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out what you see your edge as being; if you don’t have an edge, you don’t have a plan, and likely you’ll wind up a statistic (part of the 95% of new traders that lose and quit).

10) Trading Against Prevailing Trend There is a huge difference between buying cheaply on the way down and buying cheaply. What was a low price quickly becomes a high price when you’re trading against the trend.

11) Exiting Trades Poorly If you put on a trade and it’s not working make sure you exit properly; don‘t compound the damage. If you’re in a winning trade, don’t talk yourself out of the position because you’re bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

12) Trading Too Short-term If your profit target is less than 20 points don’t do the trade; the spread you pay to enter the trade makes the odds way against you when you go for these tiny profits.

13) Picking Tops and Bottoms – Looking for bargains works well at the supermarket but not trading foreign exchange; try to trade in the direction the price is going and your results will improve.

14) Being Too Smart The most successful traders I know are high school graduates. They keep it simple and don’t look beyond the obvious; their results are excellent.

15) Not Trading Around News Time Most of the big moves occur around news time. The volume is high and the moves are real; there is no better time to trade fundamentally or technically than when the news is released; this is when the real money adjusts their positions and as a result, the price changes reflect serious currency flow (compared to quiet times when Bank traders rule the market with their customer order flow).

16) Ignore Technical Condition Determining whether the market is over-extended long or over-extended short is a key determinant of near-time price action. Spike moves often occur when the market is all one way.

17) Emotional Trading When you don’t pre-plan your trades essentially it’s a thought and not an idea; thoughts are emotions and a very poor basis for doing trades. Do people generally say intelligent things when they are upset and emotional? I don’t think so.

18) Lack of Confidence Confidence only comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it’s very difficult to gain true confidence. The trick is don’t go off half-cocked. Learn the business before you trade.

19) Lack of Courage to Take a Loss There is nothing macho or gutsy about riding a loss, just stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Getting married to a bad position ruins lots of traders. The thing to remember is the market does crazy things often, so don’t get married to anyone trade. It’s just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; rather its monthly and annual performance that defines a good trader.

20) Not Focusing on the Trade at Hand There is no room for fantasizing in successful trading. Counting up and mentally spending profits you haven‘t made yet is mental masturbation and does you no good. Same with worrying about a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Focus on your position and have a reasonable stop loss in place at the time you do the trade. Then be like an astronaut sit back and enjoy the ride. No sense worrying because you have no real control. The market will do what it wants to do.

21) Interpreting FOREX News Incorrectly Fact is the press only has a very superficial understanding of the news they are reporting and tend to focus on one element and miss the point. Learn to read the source documents and understand it for real.

22) Lucky or Good Your account balance changes don’t tell you the whole story about your trading. Fact is if you are taking a lot of risks and making money you will eventually crash and burn. Look at the individual trade details. Focus on your big loses and losing streaks. Ask yourself this, “If I had a couple of consecutive losing streaks or a couple of consecutive big losses, how would my account balance look?” Generally, traders making money without big daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance. The others are accidents waiting to happen.

23) Too Many Charity Trades When you make money on a well thought out trade don’t give back half on a whim. Invest your profits from good trades on the next good trade.

24) Courage Under Fire – When a policeman breaks down the door to a drug dealer’s apartment he is scared but he does it anyway. When a fireman climbs onto the roof of a burning building he is scared but does it anyway, and gets the job done. Same with trading. It‘s ok to be scared but you have to pull the trigger. No trigger, no trades, no profits, no trader.

25) Quality Trading Time I suggest 3 hours a day of quality, focused trading time. That’s about all your brain allows. When you are trading, be 100% focused. Halfway is bullshit – it doesn’t work. Don’t even think that time spent in front of the computer watching the rates has any correlation to profitability – it doesn’t. Spend less time but when you’re trading, be 100% focused on trading.

26) Rationalizing Killer. Absolute Killer. Put your trade on and let it run. If it hits your reasonable pre-determined stop, you’re out. Think of yourself as a prizefighter. You just got knocked out. Moving your stop is like getting up after being crushed with a knockout blow. It’s pointless. Things will only get worse. Don’t ignore the obvious. You’re wrong get out. Come back the next day and try again. A small loss will not hurt you – a catastrophic loss will.

27) Mixing Apples and Oranges Have you ever done this? You see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it hasn’t moved yet. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because it’s already overbought or some 4:30 am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges. If EURUSD looks bid, buy EURUSD.

28) Avoiding the Hard Trades Bank FX traders have an axiom “the harder the trade is to do the better the trade”. This I learned from experience. When I needed to buy EURUSD and it was hard to get them, that‘s when it‘s necessary to pay up and get the business done. When it’s easy to get them, then sit back and wait for better levels. So if you are trying to get into a trade, or more importantly get out of a trade, don’t putz around for a few points – get your business done.

29) Too Much Detail If your trading more than 2 indicators then you need to clean house. Having many indicators stifles trading and finds reasons not to trade. A setup and a trigger is all you need.

30) Giving Up Too Easy Your first trade of the day may not be your best but certainly, it’s no reason to quit. I have a preset daily trading limit and I use it. You can’t make money by making excuses. Getting trades wrong is natural and should be expected.

31) Jumping the Gun Don’t be penny-wise and dollar foolish. Wait for your trade signal to be clear. Put on your trade and give it a decent size stop loss so that you don’t get knocked out by random noise.

32) Afraid to Take a Loss – trading is not personal, it’s business. Don’t think that a poor trade is a reflection on you. It could be you’re just ahead of your time or a commercial order hits the market and temporarily creates a small unexpected move. Again, place your stop beforehand and NEVER increase your pre-determined risk. If it’s going bad, it will probably get worse. I think that’s Newton’s body in motion tends to stay in motion

33) Over-Relying on Risk Reward There is zero advantage in risk-reward. If you put a 20 point stop and a 60 point profit your chances are probably 3-1 that you will lose. Actually with the spread its more like 4 to 1 (from entry point if it goes down 17 points you lose, or up 63 – you win; 17/63 is close to 4-1).

34) Trading for Wrong Reasons Because the EURUSD is going up is not in itself a reason to buy. Buying EURUSD because it’s not moving much is even worse. You’re paying the toll (spread) without even a hint that you will get a directional move. If you are bored, don’t trade; the reason you’re bored is there is no trade to do in the first place.

35) Rumors Rumors are rumors almost 100% of the time. Think about where in the motion you heard the rumor. If EURUSD is up 50 points in the last 15 minutes and the rumor is dollar negative, well – then you missed it. Whenever you in motion with the trade, determine where you are entering.

36) Trading Short-term Moving Average Crossovers This is the money sucker of the century. When the shorter-term moving average cross the longer-term moving average, it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. For the life of me, I cannot understand why this is bullish or bearish. Easy to set up on software, complete with lights, bells, and whistles, and good for the seller getting thousands for the software but in terms of creating profit – it‘s a zero.

37) Stochastic Another money sucker. Personally I think this indicator is used backward. When it first signals an overdone condition, that’s when I think the big spike in the overdone currency pair occurs. To be overbought means strong and oversold means weak. Try buying on the first sign of overbought and selling on the first sign of oversold. You’ll be with the trend and likely have identified a move with plenty of juice left.

38) Wrong Broker A lot of FOREX brokers are horrible. Get a good one. Read forums and chats in several different places to get an unbiased opinion.

39) Simulated Results Watch out for black-box systems. These are trading systems that don’t divulge how the trade signals are generated. The great majority of them are absolute garbage. They show you a track record of extraordinary results but think about it. If you could build a trading system with half a dozen filters using the benefit of hindsight, couldn’t you too come up with a great system. Of course, going forward is an entirely different story. High-speed number crunching capabilities allow for building great hindsight trading systems, so BEWARE.

40) Inconsistency Every business (FOREX trading included) requires a business plan (trading plan). Unless you have taken the time to write down a set of rules that you can and will follow, it’s likely your trading will remain unfocused and directionless. Make a plan, have rules, follow them. Set goals that are realistic and you will achieve them.

41) Master of None Focuses on one currency for technical trading. Each currency has a unique way of trading and unless you get intimate with it, you will never truly understand its underlying idiosyncrasies. Don’t spread yourself too thin focus, master one currency at a time.

42) Thinking Long Term Don’t do it. Stay in the moment. Especially if you’re a day trader. It doesn’t matter what happens next week or next month. If you are trading with 30 to 50 point stops, restrict your thought process to what’s happening right now. That is not to stay the long-term trend is not important. It is to say the long-term trend will not always help you when your trading a significantly shorter time frame.

43) Overconfidence Trading is simple but not easy. Statistics show a 95% failure rate of those attempting to become traders. If you’re doing well, don’t take your success for granted. Always be on the lookout for ways to improve what you are already doing.

44) Getting Pumped Up The trick is to maintain an even keel. When you are in a trade, you want to think exactly as you would if you didn’t have a trade on. To do this requires a relaxed disposition. This is not a football game. Don’t get psyched up. Relax and try to enjoy it.

45) Staying in the Game– I don’t recommend demo trading because traders learn bad habits when trading with play money. I also don’t think “letting it all hang out” right away is wise either. Start off doing trades and taking the risk that is relatively small but still makes a difference to you if you win or lose. About a quarter to a third of what you expect to reach as your trading matures is reasonable.

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading Tagged With: FX, Trading Lessons

Effective Cost Technique

by Gav Leave a Comment

[Update 2021]: This post was written back in 2007 November. Unfortunately, the original webinar has been removed and I guess the presenter is no longer with FXstreet as well.

I have managed to find the presentation slides here. Hope it helps.

Tony Juste from Fxstreet.com posted a presentation on money management in the forum of Fxstreet.com. It is called ‘Effective Cost’ Technique. The outline as follow:

  • It is a defensive technique. It is based on the probabilities of success of a particular position initiated.
  • It was built to prepare for the worst-case trading scenarios It allows for moderate profits while attempts to keep losses under control.
  • Allows a trader to determine the stop loss level:
    • Based on equity drawdown
    • Based on technical triggers

Full presentation is available in this thread of the forum. You have to sign up a free forum membership to gain access through. Good stuff. Go and have a look.

Filed Under: blogs Tagged With: FX, Money Management, Trading Journal

Why do I do monthly review, and only monthly?

by Gav Leave a Comment

I don’t have to write another post to tell you why do you need to keep a trading journal. I assume you should know if you are taking trading seriously. But, I guess, most of the traders might have the same problem which I used to have, ‘over review’ your trading result.

No doubt, we have to review our trading results or the accounting book of your business. Do not try to hide the losses and mistakes to yourself. After all, this is our own business, isn’t it?

But just how frequent should we do that?

After trading for a little while, I figure out, doing a monthly review is pretty much enough for day trader, like myself.

Why monthly and not weekly? Well, this is not a rule, but an observation.

I used to do a weekly review of my trading. It is useful. But, it does not really tell me my overall performance. In other words, the weekly review is kinda ‘short-sighted’.

Why is it so? Let’s take an example, during the FOMC meeting week, the market might be a little bit choppy, most likely traders are waiting for the interest rate decision. I might be trading extremely well during this kinda week, or I might be chopped to pieces. Does the result of the week itself tell me a little about my over performance as a trader? Nah, I don’t think so.

So, why do we spend time to analyse the result of the week, and feel ‘happy’ or even ‘devastated’ about it? And subsequently thinking about ‘maybe I should not trail my stops’, ‘maybe I should wait when the candle closes above yesterday’s high’ , blah, blah , blah. Maybe I should change the system rules! again?!? I don’t see a point.

In fact, it is similar to trading. Do not trap yourself in the 5-minute charts and forget about the hourly chart or even daily chart. Why? Over the long run, the big picture tells you more about the ‘truth’.

I would think a monthly, quarterly, and yearly review of the overall trading performance is pretty adequate. Tracking monthly cost of trading, reviewing mistakes, analyzing the system performance over different weeks, or even seasons. That’s more effective, well, to me.

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading Tagged With: Strategy & tools, Trading

Lesson 03-April-2007: Monkey around the stop

by Gav

This series of short notes is to record down thoughts, skills, and any lessons that I have learned from day to day trading. I am not talking about Technical analysis. One can really learn TA by getting a good book, and practice, so nothing much to discuss here.

So, what did I learn recently?

Stop Monkey-ing around with Trailing stops in Forex trading. I know I will attract a number of attacks or debate over this topic. But wait.

I note down this because it suits my trading style. It doesn’t mean trail your stops is wrong. There is no right or wrong in trading, but only what works for you and what’s not.

I start to realize, what I really love to do is to take care about how bad /how much I will lose in a single trade instead of how much I am going to earn in a single trade.

Put in the stop, that’s it. I will either close my position at a profit target (which is pretty far away) or at a predefined time. It hurts me more when watching a huge profit run away from me because I got stopped out prematurely by trailing stop than accepting a predefined amount of loss.

I can’t nor anyone can predict where will the price go and how much space we need to give to the trade to fluctuate before continue gaining. So, it is extremely tough to design the right trailing stop techniques. It can be done, but I am not into that.

OK, that’s the lesson 1. Lesson for myself.

Filed Under: blogs, Trading Lessons

Structure your Entry, a suggestion

by Gav 10 Comments

Years ago, when I was reading Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management, the triple screen idea caught my attention. I thought it was a great idea for my swing trading. The basic idea is to have a broader view of your trading time frame, looking at the bigger picture before considering your entry.

Since the beginning of this year, OK my dummy trading 2.0, I have been using this concept. I always have 3 screens on my chart, for example, NQ futures. I called these three screens Sentiment screen (the longest time frame), Value screen (intermediate time frame), and Entry screen (the shortest time frame). Again, I am not illustrating my trading setup, because, it is irrelevant to anybody. Instead, I will give a brief explanation of this structure setup.

Sentiment Screen
This is a screen with the longest time frame among the three. In this screen, you need to have your own method, be it a moving average or your very own Magic Index to determine the direction of the trend and current sentiment of the market that you are trading. For example, if we have a very bullish view in Sentiment Screen, we do not want to go short. It is either Long or no trade.

You should spend some time to find the right method for yourself to determine bullish/bearish sentiment and determine a trend. No free lunch, do your own research.

Value Screen
This screen is having a shorter time frame than the Sentiment Screen. How short is shorter? Up to you. Do your research. It can be 3x shorter or even 5 times shorter. No absolute answer. Here, I am looking for the best value to enter a position. For example, you might be looking for price to trade near a support level, moving average or Bollinger band, etc. For example, if you are trading breakout, then you might want to see congestion on this screen. If you are considering joining a trend, you might want to wait for a bounce from a pullback on this screen.
On this screen, we decide if it worth establishing a position. I don’t want to see price exhaustion on this screen.

This screen keeps me disciplined from chasing a trade. When the price runs away on this screen, I do not want to establish a position.

Entry Screen
This is the shortest time frame. In this screen, I am looking for an entry spot, be it a dummy spot or chart patterns, etc. The most important thing to remember here is, I am only interested in an entry spot in the direction of the Sentiment screen.

Of course, this is not all. This structure setup only helps in refining the entry signal. There are different ways to incorporate stop loss. The stop may be set up according to the chart in Value screen or Entry Screen. Again, this is subject to your own research.

Stephane from The Chart Strategiest applies the similar approach that I have described here, though there are differences. Check out his blog. He trades both commodity and index futures. It is good to see how he trades.

Just another piece of study that I have done to improve my trading.

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Trading Journal Tagged With: Strategy & tools

Goals for Consistency

by Gav Leave a Comment

Consistency, consistency, this is one of the most important quality I wanna achieve. Here I have a set of goals pertaining to consistency. I got the material from an article sometimes ago. I have no idea who is the author. Anyway, here is the abstract and I have added my own ideas.
I want to consistently…

  • Visualize myself in tune with the market

Seeing oneself in tune with the market and apart of the ebb and flow. Great athletes constantly visualize themselves performing at their peak. In trading, which is purely a mental game, is just as incumbent upon us to do this as well and even more often.

  • Be as professional as possible.

Trading is not a pastime activity. It has to be treated seriously, and professionally. We have to do the best job, possible leaving no regrets at the end of the day.

  • Record my trades for review and analysis

By recording our trades and thoughts, we allow ourselves to internalize the market’s actions even more and objectively analyze our own actions.

  • Look to be the agressor and proactive

Looking for setups and taking a dynamic approach to the market is critical in succeeding. Those that can consistently seek out great opportunities and then execute on them are usually rewarded.

  • Following my trading plan

Having a plan is important. Being able to execute the plan is the key to success. Stick to it.

  • Be patient and hit the same high quality spots

By executing the same game plan, we remove a great deal of the emotional turmoil that trading can bring.

At last, consistency in our approach leads to consistency in our profits!

Filed Under: blogs, Learn Trading, Trading Journal Tagged With: Strategy & tools

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