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MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) 14-Jul-2006: Short position

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From 15-min chart, downtrend is established. MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) is trading below 12-p, 21-p and 30-p EMA. I am only looking for SHORT position. Short position has been established at 263.8. I have removed all indicators but moving averages to keep myself clear and focus on price action and trend only. I do not expect this decision to deteriorate trading performance. Though I would say, I am still practising this approach. Intraday support area is found at area of 262.

I do not trade SIMSCI futures today, given first hour volume is only around 1,500 contracts traded.

Trading for 14-Jul-2006: Potential shorts

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Great. Another 3-digit loss in DJ last nite. 🙂 From the intraday trend perspective, I would be only looking at SHORT for today. For Nikkei futures, MSCI Taiwan, and MSCI Singapore. This is trade setup. My job now is looking for entry and stop points. I hope the market doesn’t run away without me.
I was reading Maxian.com yesterday. I got a feeling of being slapped on the face. I have been complicated my analysis unnecessary. The basic of trading should ‘Buy it when it is going up, sell it when it is going down.’ Though this statement is too loose in term of trading entry, it basically tells me, looking at bigger picture, looking at the trend, trade the direction of the market, as simple as that.
I quote a paragraph from Maoxian.com

‘The wrong way to play it would be to attempt to “pick a bottom,” or fade the market; blindly enter short without waiting for a good spot; getting short without setting a stop, etc. The list of errors goes on and on, but people mainly make those three big mistakes.

Traders who know themselves, who have common sense, who are disciplined, and who have the ability to keep it simple will do just fine. Remember that many people in the market are either uneducated or uninformed. And most of the few who are educated and informed waste their time building “scenarios” and end up defeating themselves by trying to outsmart the market. ‘

Trading should be simple. Really, it should be.

Confession

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I had a tendency to put in third trade of the day around 430pm. I did not do that. After realising I was in fact walking towards self-sabotage stage. Self-sabotage basically means I have the tendency to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. I would say it has been an bad week for me with loss about -0.82R , though I am still in black (profitable) for July, I am still up by 1.66R. Ego was troubling me.
Looking at the chart carefully, volume was low through out the day and spread was wide (3 to 4 ticks!). The condition does not favour my trading strategy. My trading performance is deteriorated after I start increasing frequency of trading (from 1 trade to 2 trades each day). I tend to be giving myself rooms to make mistake. Secondly, I have been putting myself under the pressure to achieve my monthly target. It is time to focus on quality again.
After all, the objective of trading is to improve the Expectancy of my system and generate more trades at the same time.
Before I achieve that, welcome to the world of trading psychology

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: 2nd Short trade closed

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Second opportunity was found in SIMSCI after it opened with a gap down in the afternoon session. I have waited until the first candle closed below support area 286.4. Short position was established at 286.2. Stop loss was set at 287, I would like to see the gap being filled before I decided to exit the short position.
Nikkei had loss around -200 points in the afternoon. I was watching for HangSeng to help in pushing the selling sentiment further.


Even with more than -200 loss in HangSeng futures, SIMSCI refused to go down further. Stop loss was triggered after the afternoon session gap was filled. And RSI is making higher lows.

One trade closed with -0.8 points loss.

Another losing day for me. with total loss of -0.64R

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

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Short position of SIMSCI has been closed at 287.2. Given Nikkei, HangSeng and SIMSCI are all pausing and reluctant to sell off further. In fact, Nikkei futures is trying to make a higher low. There might be another chance in the afternoon session, I chose to bail out before lunch.

Watch out for next opportunity. One trade closed with +0.3 gain.

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: Short position.

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I negated the chance of going Long on SIMSCI futures. Instead, I saw a chance of intrady Nikkei to be toppish before lunch break and HangSeng futures continues losing more than -100 points. Short position of SIMSCI has been established at 287.5. Intraday support is likely at 286.4 area. I am watching stop loss closely.