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“Chart view” of Australia

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We know Australian dollar is losing its ground recently. It is, in fact, the worst-performed currency in Asia Pacific for year 2008. (It reminds me, it used to be the top performer not long ago 😆 )

I had a look at monthly chart to have a view and feel how bad is the situation right now. Basically, market is wiping out all the gains since Howard government, and the years-long economy honey moon since, approximately, year 2001.

If the currency reflects the economy condition of a country, here is a “chart view” of Aussie economy.

The poor (unlucky ?) Labor party, Mr. Kevin Rudd takes over Australia at the “right time”. Soon after Labour party in charge, we have economy slow down, then collapse of Australia dollar to 5-year low. In short, he takes over Australia at the TOP, well, short term TOP and historical resistance zone. (John Howard took over at the bottom, and support zone though). This cycle should be very close to commodity cycle.

So now, the interesting part is, are we heading back to the previous bottom? or are we able to bounce from this “retracement”? I feel, this will also indicate the duration of Labor party staying in power…

Just my random rant.

Black Aussie Monday

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OH Crap.  AUDUSD falls below 0.75 for the first time in 2 years. Stock market took a tumble. All ordinaries lost around -3.3% today. What’s going on? On the paper, the reason, as expected, “people are expecting a 50bp rate cut tomorrow”. Well, probably. Anyway, it is indeed a bad day.

Here are some random thoughts..

It is a mess in the Aussie markets. Well, at least , in my point of view.  People are panic, they are guessing, or even expecting Australia to be hit by the same shitty condition like America. Government is putting a rescue package in front. The past glorious years have made a lot of Aussie allocating a big portion of their wealth heavily in stocks market. Not to mentioned the crappy Superannuation. Experts on the TV are still advising the dads & mums investor to hold on their positions.

Anyway, I can’t see it clearly now.  I don’t have a clear plan to work in this market condition. Uhm..so I guess, I will be better off staying aside. Am I too slow or not ‘intelligent’ enough to profit from this market condition? uhm…probably.

But, it is good to be safe, and holding cash at the moment…I guess.

Today’s Coffee thoughts

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Again, I am sipping my daily morning Long Black..and I am going to share some thoughts here. NO..not about the bail out things. I don’t care. Market will go wherever it wanna go, do you really think the bail out package will turn the shitty market condition around? uhm…whatever…

Ok, my fiancee and I take Tram (One of the most crappy public transport in Australia, if not in the world..:lol: ) to work every morning. I noticed some interesting behaviours.

Everytime when you hopping into the Tram/Bus/Train/MRT..do you normally take the first available seat? or do you just keep walking towards the end of the carriage to look for the ‘BEST’ seat?

There are 3 types of people. 1, grab the first opportunity in front of him, grab the first available seat (Nah, I am not asking you to fight with the 70-year-old mama for that seat). 2. Keep walking , keep thinking of there’s a better seat at the end. 3. Just keep walking, just being blind of everything.

Type 2, and 3 normally will hit the end of the carriage, and realise, ‘there’s no more seat!’. While the type 1 might miss some ‘better seat’ though.

Nothing is absolutely right or wrong. But do these 3 types of passengers remind you of trader personality?  Which type of passenger are you?

Just another piece of rant before I finish my coffee..

What’s up? Aussie, aussie, aussie, oi oi oi

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So, the House decided not to save the rich-men World. Dow index collapsed 777 points. Gold rallies now. But, where is Aussie dollar going? Decoupling from Gold movement? Australia is one of the largest gold exporters. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee the prosperity of australian dollar.

But, what exactly is the problem of Australia economy? OK,It stalls now. Well, some banks have some shitty involvements in America. Economic figures are not signaling disaster at the moment. There might be some shitty underneath, but, at the moment, I see this as panic selling. And I for one, do not believe in USD rally.

Technically, we are still sitting on the weekly support line. With support of the Gold. I am putting a small long position of Aussie dollar now. As usual I can be very very wrong, but I want the market to prove me wrong.

Weekend rambling

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I don’t have any chart to post now.  Nothing interesting. For the past weeks, or months, I have been watching NQ and YM futures with some tradings in paper mode whenever I am available or awake. It is really tricky to start your trading day around 1130pm-ish. And the cold weather in Melbourne (it is early Spring in Australia now) is not helpful at all…

Whatever….. I am still not going live for futures trading at the moment. Not at this busy moment of my life. Paper trading still goes on. Currency trading will still be the main focus.

Real advice for Long TERM investment

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I was reading this on news.com.au. This article…is kinda..dodgy to me.

Should I sell or hold?

Generally the experts recommend that it is better to hold and sit it out.

If you sell your shares or investment in most cases you will be triggering a real loss.

Remember, at the moment it is only a paper loss and you have not physically lost anything yet.

If you sell, as well as making a real loss you then have to find somewhere else to put your money.
……
This could mean you not only triggered a loss when you sold but you might also miss out on the share price rebound and have to buy in at higher prices.

Full crap here

Well, what do you think about this piece of ‘advice’? I thought it was “awesome”… :lol:.

The real advice the author is trying to say is…in plain english…. Just keep holding your losses, just keep holding..For long term, share market will be going up. Just keep holding …uhm..yeah, just keep holding…uhm…