STI closed higher? Ok, it did. It closed higher than yesterday. Good news, it is still below 12-day, 50-day and 200-day EMA. I see some space to move towards recent low, which is 2277 aread.
Nothing much about UOB Sesdaq. Still ding-dong between 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Just be patient to watch for development during this result relaesing season. Recent low is around 90 area. I am interested in looking at Short side if the support area is broken.
RE: TIMSCI 18-Jul-2006: Short trade closed
It seems like things were not going so well with me this week. Yup, another losing trade today. Short position of TIMSCI was established at 255.6, stop loss has been moved accordingly and it was triggered at 256.8 at the last trading hour of MSCI Taiwan Futures for the day. It seems to be a strong intraday support at 256.5 area. Even with -300 points loss in Nikkei, TIMSCI was still holding well. Is this a force of rebound after previous days’ losses? No idea.
Anyway, there is nothing much I can do other than exit the trade if things are not working in my favour. One trade closed with -1.2 point loss (-0.89R).
This should be the only trade of the day. I will be spending my time reading for the rest of the day.
Futures trading 18-Jul-2006
After watching first half an hour action of TIMSCI (MSCI Taiwan), SIMSCI and Nikkei futures, I will be interested in looking at Short side of TIMSCI. Nikkei Futures is losing more than -200 points, it is a little bit tough for me to be bullish.
SIMSCI is having some upward movement, however, I am not keen in Long, at least at this point of time. It is likely to be choppy (with light volume,very much possible). I will be reviewing the situation of SIMSCI in the later of the day.
Market recap 17-Jul-2006
It is not a nice picture for STI. It , in fact, failed to stay above 50-day moving average and closed below 200-day moving average. And it formed a lower high. It is a bit difficult for me to stay bullish. I would prefer to stay at Short side. In addition, looking at stochastics, it is yet to enter oversold zone.
UOB sesdaq is on the line. It stays around on 50-day moving averages. It is likely for Sesdaq to ding-dong between 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Not so good for small cap, but I am not over bearish. I guess, a little bit patience is needed.
RE: TIMSCI 17-Jul-2006: Short trade closed :chart
This is 15-min chart of MSCI Taiwan Index Futures (TIMSCI). It was easy to observe price set-ups were all for Short. I entered with entry and missing out good profit and taking silly losses.
I have been reading money management stuffs from Van Tharp and other web blogs. Thanks to TraderMike who has a well written entry on Position sizing. I am practising R-Multiples as introduced by Dr.Van Tharp for position sizing and evaluate my system expectancy.
Basically, the idea is to express all of my profits and losses in terms of my initial risk(R).
For example, if my risk for each trade is $300, then if I made $3000, then I have 10R gain. On the other hand, if I closed my trade with $150 loss, then I will have an 0.5R loss.
I learnt about the concept of expectancy. To make it simple, expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win(or to lose) per dollar at risk. Here is the formula:
Expectancy= (Probability of Win x Average Win) – (Probability of Loss x Average Loss)
More on this topic in my future posting.
RE: TIMSCI 17-Jul-2006: Short trade closed
Short position of TIMSCI was established at 258.2. Initial stop was set at 259.8 which was subsequently triggered. One trade closed with -1.6 point loss which converted into -1.37R loss (uh! ugly). I should not have allowed the trade to be place since the initial risk was more than 1R. What was going on here? Second problem, I did not wait for lower high to form completely, the decision was made after looking at some candles (uh! stupid). This is a good but painful example to show how does a trade with correct setup, but wrong entry point can hurt my trading account. Ugly trade. Silly action.
In fact, there was another opportunity when a descending triangle was formed. I did not take the trade after making a -1.37R loss within a day. I decided to close the day with negative.
Chart will be posted later
