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Gav's trading blog - Perseverance, Consistency, Confidence

Gav

Postmortem 13-September-2006

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Dear diary,

What am I doing here? I am indeed having some bad days recently, both my personal life and trading. Both hit me hard , emotionally. Well, that’s not the point of this post.

I was chopped out by E-mini Nasdaq today. And I missed out the trade of Dow mini. The problem here is not the effectiveness of trading strategy (i.e for me, it is dummy trading), it is the sharpness of a trader that counts. I was not paying enough attention to YM (Dow mini).

Dummyspots.com has some good articles on dummy trading and dummy spots illustration. Go and have a look.

So, do the bad results recently prompt me to stop posting my trades on the blog? Not at all. In fact, I found it useful and I will continue doing that for the time being.

If you are unwilling to fail, sometimes publicly, and even catastrophically, you stand little chance of ever getting rich.

Anyway, this should be a light week, and I will be flying to Taiwan next week for a break.

Success truly is the result of good judment. Good judgment is the result of experience, and experience is often the result of bad judgment!

Dummy day trading #26 13-September-2006: E-mini Nasdaq: Long trade closed

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Right after oil inventory report was released, my buy stop for E-mini Nasdaq was triggered. The trade did not go in my favour. Stop loss was triggered with 1-R loss. Well, too bad.

It seems to be a consolidation day after yesterday’s gain. But, who knows. Anyway, I will stop trading for the day.

[photopress:emini_nasdaq_30min_trade_closed.jpg,full,centered]
  1. Why would you be paying attention to this futures contract ? Strong opening with volume. In addition, S&P volume analysis shows volatile day ahead.
  2. Is the trend up or down? Would you be looking to get long or short this futures contract? Up. Looking at Long.
  3. Where would you get long/short this futures contract ? Above 9am (Chicago time) candle (inside bar), which was after oil inventory report.
  4. Where would you put the initial protective stop? Below 9am? (Chicago time) candle. with risk 1.18%
  5. When would you stop trading for the day? After position established.
  6. Where would you exit the position? Stop loss triggered

Trading: 13-September-2006: Market Opening

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We had 3-digit gain for Dow and above 40 points for Nasdaq yesterday, will there be some profit takings kick in today? No idea. We have oil inventory report at 1030 ET, this should provide some momentum to the market.
Looking at volume and price action of E-mini S&P at the first 30 minutes, I am looking forward a volatile and hopefully, trending day. E-mini S&P had a small gap down and the gap was filled within the first half hour. Mini-sized Dow and E-mini Nasdaq both opened low and go high. It is pretty positive.
At this point of time, I am looking at Long opportunities.

No trade: 13-September-2006 (AGAIN!?!?!)

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Dear diary,

Ah..it was a trending day! Great.

Good thing: Not a single dummy setup in 30-min chart across E-mini S&P, E-mini Nasdaq, mini-size Dow, and even E-mini Ruselle 2000! before 12pm NY time. So, I was being disciplined, no setup, no trade. Bad thing: I didn’t make any money.
Worst thing: I didn’t make any money during trending day.

Just as part of my observation, I noticed chances appeared in 15-min charts for the past 2 days. I was not trying to monkey around timeframes, it was the strong day with strong opening volume analysis led me to think about looking at 15-min chart for faster and safer entry.

For consideration, if opening volume analysis shows a volatile or strong day ahead, I am keen to look at shorter time frame (15-min chart). Well, it is just a consideration.

Bottom line, I need to have a couple of different trading strategies in addition to dummy trading. I can’t make a living with just one strategy.

Anyway, let’s fight another day.