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Trend analysis : STI & UOB Sesdaq

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STI

To evaluate market condition , I am always examining trend characteristics. Short term group moving averages continue drifting downward and stay below long term moving averages. There was a minimal rebound at the end of last week, however, it is still below trigger line. Directional analysis wise, downtrend strength is staying flat, while negative index is still dominating. There was a rebound at the end of last week, however, it was weak and staying below trigger line. The last note, STI is still trading below 150-day moving average. No positive sign is observed at this point of time.

UOB Sesdaq

It is rather similar to STI. I do not see positive sign of Sesdaq trend yet. Short term moving averages still staying below long term moving averages, though there seemed to be a rebound, it is still below trigger line. Directional index is showing negative value and moving below trigger line. These observations discount any rebound appeard last week. No sign of recovery at this point of time.

Week end 02-June-2006: After thought

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It has been a week that I did not post any article about stocks trading. In fact, current singapore stocks market does not excite me much. I position myself as a swing trader for stocks and day trader for SIMSCI futures. Currently, I can’t find any good setup for stocks. And sentiment is not encouraging for stocks trading as well. I mean both Long and Short.

There is a time to trade, there is a time not to. The best choice for me now is staying away from stocks.

As a private trader, my job is trading. It is important to develop a skill for both stocks and derivatives (be it Futures/Options etc) trading. I am not making myself sounds like a professional trader, in reality I am not. Futures trading provides me a source of income during correction phase of stocks market. I admit that it takes a little bit more effort and skills to trade futures. Trading is never easy to me. As a private trader, my objective is profit. Profit comes when a planned trade is executed properly. I cover myself well when making a wrong decision in trading.

I read postings in forums. It surprised me how strong is the bargain hunting instinct inside the heart of traders (or trader turned investor after holding losing positions home), and the level of ignorance of risk management. There is nothing wrong of bargain hunting. Do it with trend analysis. Bargain hunting when a new trend is developing, but not because it looks cheap. My philosophy of trading is , high will get higher, so cheap can get cheaper. Bargain hunting blindly is just a express way to ruin your bank account.

Next week, it is going to be another ‘out of stock’ week to me. Friday’s rebound is just not convincing to act in stocks trading. I will be focusing in SIMSCI futures trading.