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Gav's trading blog - Perseverance, Consistency, Confidence

Gav

Baht Baht black sheep..

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Luka left an comment asking my take of the recent Hoo ha of Thai Baht policy in Thailand. I tried to read some materials on this topic again. Here is a chart to show the reaction of Asian Bources after the announcement I found on online newspaper.

[photopress:bigThaiCavein.jpg,full,pp_image]

In Singapore, stock index shedding 2.2 percent, its biggest drop since June. Malaysia’s bourse shaved off 2 percent, it largent loss since May.

The change of tone of Thai Finance Minister:
“After consulting with brokers, investors and all parties concerned, the Bank of Thailand and Finance Ministry will waive that 30-per-cent lock-out required for the foreign investment which invests in the SET.” See how did others comment on this policy.

To answer Luka’s question. I don’t see big implication for the region. Well, period. After Asian economic crisis which happened about decade ago, countries like Malaysia , Thailand, Singapore etc are recovering with better foundation. Better corporate earnings. Yup, maybe there are really some speculations of currency, however, the economy condition now is quite different from 1997. So another melt down? Maybe. But I am not putting my bet on it.

Looking at the reaction of Asian stock indices. Do you think it is something to be amazed? I don’t think so. It was just some normal reflection of news. In fact, i am looking forward more sell down after the recent gain.

Just my unprofessional random rant over this topic.

My neglected investments

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Three years ago I started some small investments with my CPF (Retirement fund in Singapore). I went for dollar cost averaging, which means small amount of monthly contribution. I invested in several funds.
I have to admit that I have ignored this account for quite sometime. Since it is end of the year, I take a look at it. Well….not so bad (not so good either), I have accumulated 14% growth of my invested capital.

Here are the funds that I have invested. I am still holding the position.

  • ASEAN GROWTH FUND – Equities in the ASEAN region
  • ENHANCER FUND– Equity markets of Asian Pacific region
  • GLOBAL GROWTH TREND PORTFOLIO– Global portfolio of equity securities. 50% United States, 11% Switzerland, 10% Japan, 7% United Kingdom etc
  • GLOBAL BOND FUND– 42% Europe, 48% United States, 10% Japan
  • GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY FUND– diversified portfolio of transferable securities, on world-wide basis

I really need to pay attention to them now. This post is just to summarize my positions and start tracking them closely.

Postmortem 20-December-2006

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Nothing much to write. I will keep this short. I made one trade yesterday. I longed NQ with break even result.

I missed the downward movement after lunch hour as Trend chart was still moving up, so I did not consider any short position. After browsing through my trading journals, paper trading journals, as well as reading charts during back testing, my dummy system seems to be working better in NQ than ES or YM. No conclusion yet, just some observations.

I think this week should be the last trading week of the year. Next week should be the time for everything other than trading, if you still call yourself human. So, next week, give yourself a chance to be a human. Forget about trading, get a life.

Two more days to go before I end 2006 trading year, end of the first 6 months of my day trading life. I have not made millions, or lost my shirt, yet (in fact, I manage to achieve 10% growth of my trading capital this year). But, I am feeling good so far.

Though I did not make any trade this month, I still have 1-R loss. Data fee + Tradestation platform fee. hohoho… Merry Christmas.

Trades that got away 20-December-2006: NQ Long

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I continue my paper trading today. Long position of NQ was established above 950am candle. Trend chart was up, only long position was considered. Trend chart is referring to my trend evaluation system which is built in longer time frame.

Minimum target was set at Yesterday’s high 1814.5. It was hit. I moved the initial stop loss to break even level. NQ failed to continue moving up. I exited the position at the open of 1025am candle when the previous candle (1020am) closed below moving average, and it was also the forth candle which failed to exceed last swing high.
One trade closed with 0-R gain.

[photopress:NQ5mingotaway.jpg,full,pp_image]

Trend Evaluation system : Update of my work

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Back testing is tough, back testing is boring. Back testing is #$%^&. No doubt. But while I was looking back charts, programming codes, ideas and thought flowing into my mind.

I was having some thoughts over the process of developing my trading system. At the earlier days when I first started Dummy trading, I simply jumped into a trade as long as a valid dummy spot appeared. I can’t say that was right or wrong. But by trading this way, it reduced the expectancy and accuracy of my system (well, I thought I did have a system! lol). When you have a system with positive expectancy, chances are you will be profitable in the long term. But when you have a system with low accuracy, you will have a tough time fighting with yourself to handle the strings after strings of losses (even though they were just small losses!). I had a discussion with Dave on this topic recently as well.

I decide to have a look at the core element of dummy trading. TREND. Yup, basically, I am looking to buy pull back or consolidation within an established trend. During the choppy day, I will be bleeding. I will be better off if I can analyze the current trend before I establish a position. Again, I can spend the whole day drawing lines, calculating moving averages, but day trading requires fast and accurate decisions, so , it will be helpful to have something built to reduce number of decisions I need to make during trading session.

I have drafted out a high-level chart to illustrated my work now.

[photopress:trendevaluation_1.jpg,full,pp_image]

My task now is developing a Trend Evaluations system. Of course, by no mean, this is a holy grail. It might be just a Moving Average crossover system, drawing some lines or just an ADX calculation system etc. No rocket science. It just to assist me to understand and see the TREND in a faster, and handy way. I am trying to find a method that will keep me at the right side of the market, (well, of course, it can’t be 100% accurate, at least, it put me at the high probability side of trade) regardless of what other system rules (such as Dummy) I might be following. So the end result will be, I have a “system” that takes a position as soon as I find a trend and then exits when the trend is over.

The reason is, if I start from a basis where I am already on the right side of the market, then whatever entry and exit rules I superimpose on my calculation of trend SHOULD only continue to improve my results.

Well, work is still in progress. Just to share something that I am currently doing, and I hope it helps me to grow as a better trader.

Rogue Trader

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I did not trade on Options expiry Friday. Didn’t bother to log into my Tradestation as well. 😉

Here is an interesting site. Nick Lesson’s official site. Here is his full Biography. I am interested in reading this, partly because, he was a futures trader, and trading SGX-Nikkei 225 Futures in Singapore and subsequently broke Barings.

I am still trying to find the VCD/DVD of the movie Rogue Trader in Singapore.

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