Let’s have a look at AUD/USD again. Looking at the daily chart, are we looking forward a explosive move soon? or it is time to go back to the trading range again? Interesting. Last week, Aussie just failed to make any progress through the resistance area. :o:

Here is the ……..CHART!

[photopress:aud18feb2008daily_1.gif,full,1]

Looking into 4-hour time frame. Is that a ascending triangle? do you buy that? does it show ,’internally’ we are gaining strength to break out from the resistance? Let’s see.

Here is the ……CHART!

[photopress:aud18feb20084hour_1.gif,full,1]

And here is the overall trend score. So far, uptrend is still intact.

About this tool

I am trying a new idea of examining strength (or maybe sentiment) of some currencies. Taking the average of the trend scores (as of today) that I am using. No rocket science, just some statistics to be considered before making trade.

A scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong up trend)

YEN

GBP/JPY -55

USD/JPY -55

AUD/JPY +70

CAD/JPY -55

Average : -23.75. Yen scores +23.75 . This is rather flat.

AUSSIE

AUD/USD +60

AUD/JPY +70

AUD/CAD +90

GBP/AUD -75

Average: +73.75. Australian dollar is still in uptrend, though it is not as strong yet.

USD

USD/JPY -55

GBP/USD +55

EUR/USD +80

USD/CAD -70

Average: -65. It shows Dollar is in downtrend, but, it is a weak downtrend at the moment.

I am still going with Aussie dollar, at the moment. Though I would be happier if it gets a little bit stronger now. :o:

The tools that I use to generate trend score

None of my short setup of AUDJPY was formed, and I don’t feel like going against Yen at the moment, so I do not try to go long as well. Instead I shift my attention to AUDUSD. Nice. I saw a long entry opportunity around 0.9040-ish level. This is a position trade, with good risk/reward ratio, around 1:4. It might be a bit too ambitious, but, who knows? Let’s see how it goes.

Here is the….No chart! I will post the chart once the position is closed.

Anyway, here is the trend score;

About this tool

On the news front, RBA flags rate hikes again

The RBA’s statement on monetary policy makes it clear that inflation is rising and that the RBA is on the war path to put a lid on it, despite uncertainty in the global economy.

”On the current outlook, then, and allowing for the inevitable uncertainties in forecasting, the risk of inflation remaining uncomfortably high for some time is considerable. Absent a further shift in economic risks to the downside, therefore, monetary policy is likely to need to be tighter in the period ahead.”