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Examining some figures

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I am trying a new idea of examining strength (or maybe sentiment) of some currencies. Taking the average of the trend scores (as of today) that I am using. No rocket science, just some statistics to be considered before making trade.

A scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong up trend)

YEN

GBP/JPY -55

USD/JPY -55

AUD/JPY +70

CAD/JPY -55

Average : -23.75. Yen scores +23.75 . This is rather flat.

AUSSIE

AUD/USD +60

AUD/JPY +70

AUD/CAD +90

GBP/AUD -75

Average: +73.75. Australian dollar is still in uptrend, though it is not as strong yet.

USD

USD/JPY -55

GBP/USD +55

EUR/USD +80

USD/CAD -70

Average: -65. It shows Dollar is in downtrend, but, it is a weak downtrend at the moment.

I am still going with Aussie dollar, at the moment. Though I would be happier if it gets a little bit stronger now. :o:

The tools that I use to generate trend score

Position trade of the week : Long AUDUSD

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None of my short setup of AUDJPY was formed, and I don’t feel like going against Yen at the moment, so I do not try to go long as well. Instead I shift my attention to AUDUSD. Nice. I saw a long entry opportunity around 0.9040-ish level. This is a position trade, with good risk/reward ratio, around 1:4. It might be a bit too ambitious, but, who knows? Let’s see how it goes.

Here is the….No chart! I will post the chart once the position is closed.

Anyway, here is the trend score;

audusd11feb2008_trend.jpg
About this tool

On the news front, RBA flags rate hikes again

The RBA’s statement on monetary policy makes it clear that inflation is rising and that the RBA is on the war path to put a lid on it, despite uncertainty in the global economy.

”On the current outlook, then, and allowing for the inevitable uncertainties in forecasting, the risk of inflation remaining uncomfortably high for some time is considerable. Absent a further shift in economic risks to the downside, therefore, monetary policy is likely to need to be tighter in the period ahead.”

Is it time now? uhm….. AUD/JPY

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During my routine Sunday chart scanning , AUD/JPY jumps out to me. I see something interesting. It looks like a bearish flag, then it broke down, pulled back, and this might be a downtrend continuation. I am watching closely, and play at the short side with caution. But,be prepared, it might signal a new bull run of the pair.

Here is the ……..CHART!

[photopress:audjpy08feb2008_daily.gif,full,1]

Here is the trend score, a weak downtrend is indicated, which shows a potential.

negative longer term is strengthening. The market action could signal the start of a major trend change Weak Downtrend Very tight money management stops.

audjpy08feb2008_trend.JPG

About this tool

So which one do you call?

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firework.jpgLet’s look at GOLD. I just love this chart. Clean and clear. We have a new higher low and the recent pull back ended earlier than I had expected. Anyway, strong uptrend is still intact.

Here is the trend score :

gold09feb2008daily_trend.JPG
About this tool

Here is the…..CHART!

[photopress:gold09feb2008daily.gif,full,alignleft]

While we prosper in GOLD, we have to show some sympathy to the once beloved dollar. :o: . Let’s have a looooook at USD. I know you would say that, OK, we might have bottomed now. Err…I don’t know. Yup, we are in the trading range for the past couple of weeks. And , now, it looks a little bit weak to me. . Ah…who knows? Which one do you think? Dollar rally or bloody sell off in the making?

Here is the trend score:

usd_daily_09feb2008_trend.JPG
About this tool

Here is the……CHART!

[photopress:_USD_daily_09Feb2008.GIF,full,1]

By the way, if you are interested, you may wanna check out this video about how to apply the trend score on GOLD trade.

Thursday’s currency trade

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Overall, this is not a good trade. I got a nice short entry of Aussie dollar. The interest rate rise did not help to push aud/usd back to the recent high, and indeed, it fell back to the trading range. I wanted to short, and today , I saw an nice entry. But, I don’t like the fact that it flirts around 0.89 level and U.S unemployment claims and home sales report are coming in 15-minute time, I decide to bail out with around +24 pips profit. This exit method is kinda questionable. I will deal with this later. Time for me to catch some sleep.

Anyway, it is always good to start the year of Rat in profit. Gong Xi Fa Cai 🙂

Here is the……CHART!

[photopress:audusd07Feb2008.jpg,full,1]

Update:

Apparently, I was ‘right’ in the exit decision. Nah, I was lucky, I guess. Anyway, 0.89 level was held. AUD/USD is in sideway mood at the moment. More about aussie later.

Here is the trend score:

audusd07feb2008trend.JPG
About this tool

Gong Xi Fa Cai

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yearofrat.gif

Today is Chinese New Year! And this is the Year of Rat. The Rat (Chinese:?) was welcomed in ancient times as a protector and bringer of material prosperity.

This is the first time I am spending my chinese new year away from my family in Malaysia, and I am heading to office for work now..uhm… Anyway, this is the season to be together with your loved ones, for diners, laughters etc. I wish all readers of TraderGav.com and my trading/blogging pals a prosperous and healthy year!

Gong Xi Fa Cai. 😀