I am not going to write too much. Are these charts look a sell to you? Think…
EURGBP : Trend Score: -55
[photopress:EURGBP06May2008.gif,full,1]
EURUSD : Trend Score: -70
[photopress:eurusd06may2008.gif,full,1]
NZDUSD: Trend Score: -55
[photopress:nzdusd06may2008.gif,full,1]
So you know we had a surprised Non Farm payroll numbers last Friday. The Green Back is showing some strength. I see some Long setups in dollar pairs, before I start my trade selection, I would like to have a look at Dollar Index.
We saw dollar kinda bottomed around 71-ish level. Well, maybe I should say, it chopped around 71-ish area. And it started to show some strength in April. Of course, even the doggy outside my apartment can tell, USD is still in established downtrend, in medium to long term. For now, I see 75-ish level as a target before it continues its downtrend.
So, I might have a couple short term long USD positions in the coming week. Let’s see how it plays out.
Here is the ….. CHART!
[photopress:Dollar_index_04May2008.jpg,full,1]
Here is the ….Trend Score! Bear in mind , we are having a very weak uptrend though….
[photopress:Dollar_index_04May2008_trend.jpg,full,1]
I spent my day in church, shopping in Queen Victoria market, having Malaysian food for lunch, a nice coffee break in a small cafe near my place. What a nice day. A little chilly in Melbourne, but I feel good. A day without work and trading.
After finished my dinner, I was checking out my emails. Unintentionally, I was browsing my old blog posts, my SIMSCI futures trading journal ,which was around 2 years ago. I am inspired by that trader, which , in fact is myself. 😆 . No, not another showing off posting here. The point is, I found that trading profitably can be that simple. I was purely trading price patterns and inter market sentiments (I used Nikkei and HangSeng as sentiment indicators when I was trading SIMSCI futures, I didn’t know how did I come out with this brilliant idea), that’s it. I still love that moment.
Looking at my current trading. Again, I am back to the starting point. I start to perform well when I am back to basic. I adventured different stuffs in trading, trying to improve (if not deteriorating my own performance), and profit appears when I am trading the old way that I am comfortable and confident with.
This is absolutely one of the good points of keeping a trading journal. Go back to read your old journal. It is a mirror. It tells you how silly you were. It tells you how good you were, and It tells you now it is the time to head back to gym to get back your six packs and biceps.
Ah, just my weekend rant.
Yup, it is time now for me to have a break from currency trading. OK, it is just an excuse. Basically, I do not find anything interesting or tradeable, well, in my definition. We are heading into a big week/chaotic week? My Sunday night chart scanning was a mess. I have a bunch of ugly charts.
So, I am going to let the currency markets adjust itself next week. I might spend a little bit time scanning some Australian stocks, and play some NQ futures trading…
Have a safe week.
Here is another trading secret, again!?! 😆 I thought you guys like secrets,don’t you?
The purpose of writing this post is to get my mind organized. I have been working on developing my trading model for the past few days, and my brain is kinda experiencing information-overloaded now. If I can write down something here, that will help me to confirm I am working in the right direction. Remember? I am a detailed trader! 😆 Whatever…
Trend, trend, trend. How many days and nights, how much money has been spent on this topic. People pay hundreds if not thousands of dollars to purchase some strategies/methods/indicators just to tell you, ‘man, this is uptrend..’ Crap.
You can define a trend by calculating the slope of 200-day moving average..WOW!~ What’s that? Leave it to mathematicians. I have no idea how to calculate the slope of MAs… You can define a trend when the short term moving average crosses above long term moving average…WOW!~ this is typical, old generation snake oil salesman’s tricks…
Come on, let’s make our life simpler. An uptrend, according to Gav’s textbook, is nothing but higher highs and higher lows. The same goes for a downtrend. You want to see the waves continue forming. (did I mention wave? don’t mess it up with idiot wave theory…) Market moves in its own style, and pace. Grab a pencil, mark the highs and lows. what do you see? Here is a typical chart showing on my workstation when preparing my trades. What else do you wanna know?
I have no advice to offer here. A chart can show you a lot, and it can show you nothing at the same time. It is up to you whether you wanna trade with the trend or do some counter-trend trading. Identify trends should not take up 80% of your trading preparation time. It should be simple. Once identifying it, we have to drill down to look for entry opportunities and play around with position sizing. At least, that’s what I am doing.
While writing this post, I accidentally play the whipsaw song by Ed Seykota again.
“What do we do when we catch a trend, honey…?”
We ride that trend right to the end..
“What do we do when our risk is right, honey..?”
We make a lot of money and we sleep at night..
I was stopped out by a couple of trades this week. But, to maintain my Guru snake oil sales man status, I am not going to post charts of my losing trades here. 😆 , remember, snake oil salesman never shows you losing trades. 😆 Come on, just a bunch of charts that were stopped. You won’t learn anything from my losing trades. And I am a very superstitious Asian man, I believe posting too much of losing trades here will bring you bad luck and trade worse…LOL… 🙂
The stopped trades this week, uhm.. maybe because of late entry, poor timing, I guess. I am finishing up my detailed journal for April. I am mesmerized by the good trades that I have made, and puking towards the crappy ones. 😆 I made a couple of crappy trades this month, I know that. Over all, it is still a good month for me.
I am still very much interested in researching the risk management module. As couple of readers commented in the Variable Fractional Percent method, there are weakness in the model , for sure. Let’s see if I can come up with something over the weekend.
It is a long weekend in Australia. I guess I might not be trading on Friday.
Have a good one.
