OK, I established short position of USDJPY. I don’t have energy to write up a full analysis. Basically, my strategy calls it a short, so I go short. Let’s see how it works out.
Here is the statistics
[photopress:usdjpy_trend.jpg,full,1]
and here is the …..CHART!
[photopress:usdjpy.gif,full,1]
It has been a very busy and wonderful two-week. After seeing off my families back to Malaysia, I am back to my trading desk. I hope to start some tradings soon.
It is very interesting to know how the retail business people from south east asia (particularly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore) view Australia dollar. They are bullish. For medium to long term , I guess. At the moment, in both Malaysia and Singapore, most probably you can’t buy Australian dollar from retail money changer on the spot. Instead, you’ve to pre-order, and collect it later. People are rushing to buy the Aussie. Supply is short. In fact, my sister was not able to find any Aussie dollar prior coming to Melbourne. This is interesting, isn’t it?
Of course, this is not enough to create a bullish view of Aussie dollar just yet. In fact, it shows that most of retail traders/investors might still live in the old Aussie dream. This is not a simple correction, this is a pretty serious damage of Australian dollar trend. It might take awhile before their ‘investment’ takes off again. Let’s see how it goes.
Here is another chart of a hell. Rogers International Commodity index shows a pretty clear picture of commodities markets at the moment. Bear in mind, crude oil weights 21% while Gold weights 3% in this index.
[photopress:RogersIntCommodity.jpg,full,1]
This chart is to show how carry trade strategy is being hurt badly this year. Price of PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV) has lost, roughly, around -25% (from 27-ish to 20-ish) This is likely going to be a shitty year for carry traders.
Here is the….CHART!
[photopress:DBV_carry_Trade.jpg,full,1]
OH Crap. AUDUSD falls below 0.75 for the first time in 2 years. Stock market took a tumble. All ordinaries lost around -3.3% today. What’s going on? On the paper, the reason, as expected, “people are expecting a 50bp rate cut tomorrow”. Well, probably. Anyway, it is indeed a bad day.
Here are some random thoughts..
It is a mess in the Aussie markets. Well, at least , in my point of view. People are panic, they are guessing, or even expecting Australia to be hit by the same shitty condition like America. Government is putting a rescue package in front. The past glorious years have made a lot of Aussie allocating a big portion of their wealth heavily in stocks market. Not to mentioned the crappy Superannuation. Experts on the TV are still advising the dads & mums investor to hold on their positions.
Anyway, I can’t see it clearly now. I don’t have a clear plan to work in this market condition. Uhm..so I guess, I will be better off staying aside. Am I too slow or not ‘intelligent’ enough to profit from this market condition? uhm…probably.
But, it is good to be safe, and holding cash at the moment…I guess.
by Gav 3 Comments
So, the House decided not to save the rich-men World. Dow index collapsed 777 points. Gold rallies now. But, where is Aussie dollar going? Decoupling from Gold movement? Australia is one of the largest gold exporters. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee the prosperity of australian dollar.
But, what exactly is the problem of Australia economy? OK,It stalls now. Well, some banks have some shitty involvements in America. Economic figures are not signaling disaster at the moment. There might be some shitty underneath, but, at the moment, I see this as panic selling. And I for one, do not believe in USD rally.
Technically, we are still sitting on the weekly support line. With support of the Gold. I am putting a small long position of Aussie dollar now. As usual I can be very very wrong, but I want the market to prove me wrong.
