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Trading Journal

Time for some OIL — in breakout mode

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I am not trading on Friday, so I thought to have a look at some charts. After watching Adam’s video from market club, I had a look at oil.  I see oil coming. It is in the trading range, and with the sell off of USD , momentum is building up,  chances are, we will be seeing a upside breakout. My dumb prediction? 70-ish as first target. Let’s see how it goes. And…what do you think it will affect the equity market?hmm…are you still holding Long positions?

Here is the ….CHART! (Click to view full chart)

oil_daily

Here are some technical statistics:

oil_trend

About this tool

Is it time now? AUDUSD….

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I am always looking at AUDUSD. Partly because I need to manage my USD exposure in my trading account. Anyway, I see AUDUSD  trading in a tight range and potentially moving to 0.68-ish level. I am watching. On the other hand, I do not ignore the possibility of breaking down, and back to 0.63…AGAIN.

Here is the …..CHART!  (click to view full chart)

audusd-4hr_14mar2009

Some statistics:
audusd_trendscore

About this tool

Weekly Wrap up

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I was thinking of posting some analysis, some charts here. I gave up the idea. There are blogs out there writing much better analysis than I do. Anyway, looking at the weekly chart, I would not think it is a good idea to continue shorting EURUSD. Well…I am not talking about day trading. You got the point.

In term of Forex day trading, this was a pretty quiet week for me. I missed one trade, made one winner, and watched from sideline for the rest of the week. In addition, I have been doing some futures trading on ES lately, I see trading opportunities that I have not seen before. I see good progress. I’d see if it is possible to bring my futures trading back to routine.

Something shocking, and interesting happened this week. I experienced earthquake in Melbourne! Well, a tremor to be exact. 4.7 magnitude earthquake happened around 96km away from Melbourne. I was sitting on the couch with my wife, watching Ramsay’s Hell Kitchen (did I tell you , I am fan of this f*ker? 😆 ), and the apartment was shaking for 5 to 10 seconds. Seriously, I didn’t know what to do other than waiting for it to stop, and immediately rushing out from my apartment. Nothing really serious, but this is a special experience. Who would expect earthquake in Melbourne?

Back to trading. Ocasionally, I would discuss or share my trading ideas on Twitter. In case you are interested, you can find me here.

When Aussie is below 0.63 cents again…

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I am actually looking for long signal. Yes, I am waiting to go long. We are waiting to see how does RBA react now. Do they still think that the stimulus package is going to do any good?

Well , it is understandable why were they so confident about the stimulus package. During the Asian crisis, around 1997 to 1999 , Australia managed to grow at an average rate of 4.7%. The country’s sound foundation of strong domestic consumption was able to save Australia from past crises. Consumer consumption was the key.

They still believe in this. I guess.

Anyway, I don’t believe in what they choose to believe. But I am looking to long  Aussie dollar now.

Here is the….CHART! (Click to view full chart)

audusd-4hr