Another trading idea comes out from my coffee cup. I see a stronger Aussie dollar. And EUR/AUD gives a shorting opportunity. What do you wanna do? Uhm…..
Here is the .daily CHART!
[photopress:eurauddaily14jan2008.gif,full,alignleft]
Let’s take a closer look….
[photopress:euraud4hourly14jan2008.gif,full,alignleft]
Hmmm…doji on daily followed by what is technically an inside day. At trend line support, hovering above the 50MA. Indecisive at the period by period level. I might wait for a breakout in either direction if I traded on the daily charts. Then again, there is a nice continuation pattern suggested in the current consolidation — a bullish flag, with a target of 1.73 at least if the pattern proves valid. I would initially target 1.62 to the downside (next key support).
4hr has had an hourly range breakout, which could be traded up to initial resistance at the 1.67 handle (where MA, Fib, and pivot resistance are in confluence with horizontal resistance), at which point I might fade the rally, if I traded the 4hr time frame. I would consider this pair long on the four hour if the pair easily cracked 1.6760.
And there there is what happens to gold to take into consideration. And of course what AUDUSD and EURUSD are doing and which appears to have greater relative strength. Plus a few other factors that I’m sure I’m forgetting.
Having said that, EUR is mostly neutral now — in terms of sentiment. So I would guess it’s mostly up to AUD to move this pair unless there is some external driver that kicks the Euro into gear. It’s always so hard to think outside of one’s own paradigm.
I was confusing on my daily chart run down — I would actually stand aside given what I see there and would plan trades in both directions (executed from the 4hr TF).
If I traded long, I would target 1.67 initially, then fade a rally or trade a braek above 1.6760. If I trade short, I would initially target 1.62.
Hope this clears up my mumbling…or maybe I’m still mumbling. I dunno.
Yup, I would say that it pretty much depends on AUD’s strength now. EUR/AUD appears to be a short to me, I am waiting for my short entry setup to form. let’s see how it goes.
Hmmm…doji on daily followed by what is technically an inside day. At trend line support, hovering above the 50MA. Indecisive at the period by period level. I might wait for a breakout in either direction if I traded on the daily charts. Then again, there is a nice continuation pattern suggested in the current consolidation — a bullish flag, with a target of 1.73 at least if the pattern proves valid. I would initially target 1.62 to the downside (next key support).
4hr has had an hourly range breakout, which could be traded up to initial resistance at the 1.67 handle (where MA, Fib, and pivot resistance are in confluence with horizontal resistance), at which point I might fade the rally, if I traded the 4hr time frame. I would consider this pair long on the four hour if the pair easily cracked 1.6760.
And there there is what happens to gold to take into consideration. And of course what AUDUSD and EURUSD are doing and which appears to have greater relative strength. Plus a few other factors that I’m sure I’m forgetting.
Having said that, EUR is mostly neutral now — in terms of sentiment. So I would guess it’s mostly up to AUD to move this pair unless there is some external driver that kicks the Euro into gear. It’s always so hard to think outside of one’s own paradigm.
I was confusing on my daily chart run down — I would actually stand aside given what I see there and would plan trades in both directions (executed from the 4hr TF).
If I traded long, I would target 1.67 initially, then fade a rally or trade a braek above 1.6760. If I trade short, I would initially target 1.62.
Hope this clears up my mumbling…or maybe I’m still mumbling. I dunno.
Yup, I would say that it pretty much depends on AUD’s strength now. EUR/AUD appears to be a short to me, I am waiting for my short entry setup to form. let’s see how it goes.