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RE:MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) 14-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

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TIMSCI short position of 263.8 is covered at 262.1 which was a planned target. In fact, a descending triangle was formed. and the calculated target for descending triangle was around 262 as well.

I might missed out bigger profit, however, I would prefer to take profit based on planned target level.

One trade closed with + 1.7 points (1.26R) gain.

Chart will be posted after market closed.

MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) 14-Jul-2006: Short position

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From 15-min chart, downtrend is established. MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) is trading below 12-p, 21-p and 30-p EMA. I am only looking for SHORT position. Short position has been established at 263.8. I have removed all indicators but moving averages to keep myself clear and focus on price action and trend only. I do not expect this decision to deteriorate trading performance. Though I would say, I am still practising this approach. Intraday support area is found at area of 262.

I do not trade SIMSCI futures today, given first hour volume is only around 1,500 contracts traded.

Trading for 14-Jul-2006: Potential shorts

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Great. Another 3-digit loss in DJ last nite. 🙂 From the intraday trend perspective, I would be only looking at SHORT for today. For Nikkei futures, MSCI Taiwan, and MSCI Singapore. This is trade setup. My job now is looking for entry and stop points. I hope the market doesn’t run away without me.
I was reading Maxian.com yesterday. I got a feeling of being slapped on the face. I have been complicated my analysis unnecessary. The basic of trading should ‘Buy it when it is going up, sell it when it is going down.’ Though this statement is too loose in term of trading entry, it basically tells me, looking at bigger picture, looking at the trend, trade the direction of the market, as simple as that.
I quote a paragraph from Maoxian.com

‘The wrong way to play it would be to attempt to “pick a bottom,” or fade the market; blindly enter short without waiting for a good spot; getting short without setting a stop, etc. The list of errors goes on and on, but people mainly make those three big mistakes.

Traders who know themselves, who have common sense, who are disciplined, and who have the ability to keep it simple will do just fine. Remember that many people in the market are either uneducated or uninformed. And most of the few who are educated and informed waste their time building “scenarios” and end up defeating themselves by trying to outsmart the market. ‘

Trading should be simple. Really, it should be.

Confession

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I had a tendency to put in third trade of the day around 430pm. I did not do that. After realising I was in fact walking towards self-sabotage stage. Self-sabotage basically means I have the tendency to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. I would say it has been an bad week for me with loss about -0.82R , though I am still in black (profitable) for July, I am still up by 1.66R. Ego was troubling me.
Looking at the chart carefully, volume was low through out the day and spread was wide (3 to 4 ticks!). The condition does not favour my trading strategy. My trading performance is deteriorated after I start increasing frequency of trading (from 1 trade to 2 trades each day). I tend to be giving myself rooms to make mistake. Secondly, I have been putting myself under the pressure to achieve my monthly target. It is time to focus on quality again.
After all, the objective of trading is to improve the Expectancy of my system and generate more trades at the same time.
Before I achieve that, welcome to the world of trading psychology

Some thought on the ‘Waves’

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I believe there are profitable Elliot wave traders out there. No doubt. Though I have never met any of them yet. In fact, I have met a lot of wave analysts, not trader. I am not an wave trader and I definitely do not have bad feeling towards these wave analysts, I just have the feeling that they have complicated trading unintentionally. They are trying to view the market in a different, maybe, creative way. But, they create the confusion at the same time.
Trading should not be so difficult (after all, you are buying something with good potential upside and sell it when it is in high demand). And wave, to me, is sometimes over subjective and the element of prediction or you call it forecasting is too strong. Being always objective is difficult but it is necessary for trading. I have come back to the same point, straight trend line, support and resistance line are in fact enough for you to trade profitablely. I have never believe in market prediction in my whole trading life. To trade, I prefer to face the fact, what is happening in front of my eyes. Accept the fact, and act on it.
I have the same feeling towards Gann's stuffs as well. If you are confused, not sure about which wave you are in now, why bother to spend your time struggling on these waves?
Make trading simpler, and trade better.