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Gav's trading blog - Perseverance, Consistency, Confidence

Trading Journal

Coffee thoughts of the day 29-April-2009

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I am not going to post charts today. In summary, my Long positions of GBPJPY and USDJPY were slaughtered , Long AUDUSD made it all back with additional profit.Read my twit here. 

If you live or visited Melbourne, Australia before, you should know about our most ‘Fabulous’ and ‘efficient’ public transport system. Let’s only talk about Tram here. With a 10 times 2 hour ticket, each trip will cost you $2.90, and without a valid ticket, if caught, a fine of around $120 will be charged.

I am not working for the transportation company, I do not care if they are making profit or loss. However, does it do you any good by not paying for the ticket? Let’s assume you travel from home to office everyday, and what is the Risk reward ratio and accuracy here?

Talking in the trading language, each win will give you $2.9 profit. And each loss will cost you $120. How accurate does your system need to be in order to win the game? You need 100% winning rate. I have prepared the following table.

tram_trade

Why do you even bother to take this trade? I don’t get it. Maybe the feeling of winning (not paying and not being caught) covers the fact that risk reward ratio is not with us. Relate this to your trading, how are you doing? And, whether to pay for the tram ticket or not, it is up to you 🙂

Trading idea: NZDUSD Short 27-April-2009

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This is another trading idea comes out from my weekend chart scan.  NZDUSD is another short pattern, that is targeting 0.560-ish, 0.5570-ish, and 0.5520-ish as 3 targets.  These offer 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 R/R.  We have official cash rate and RBNZ rate statement released this coming Thursday, so watch out.

I can be very wrong again, as always. However, it all depends on your trade and risk management skill. I am not going into that again. I wrote a related post Accuracy vs Risk reward ratio.

Here is the…. CHART! Let’s see how it works out.

nzdusd27april2009

One USDCHF trade 23-April-2009

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Short position of USDCHF was established at the same time as my EURUSD trade mentioned in the last post.  Technically, I was bearish about Dollar. Another classical text-book pattern. Profit target was hit on Friday with +2R , a perfect way to end the week. It has been a decent week with +7R. I am not trading on Friday.

On a side note, Oanda has been behaving abnormally today. There were times it prompted me ‘Server Busy’ and failed to log into my account, and quote was lagging, and , as I am writing now, my ‘Activity’ tab is empty. Well…. Any of my 12 readers encounter the same problem?

Here is the…. CHART!

usdchf_trade_closed_oanda_23april2009

 

*Update : Communicated with Oanda support, upgrade work of platform is going on, and Activity tab is disabled.

EURUSD trade closed 24-April-2009

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Trading idea of Long EURUSD pays off today. Profit target was achieved and position was closed with +3R, or +200 pips (does pips count make me sound awesome? whatever…).

I guess, patience played the major part of this position. Well, I should admit that, there were times that I really wanted to exit earlier. Fortunately, I am old enough to know when to leave the machine, shut down the platform and enjoy some wine.

Alright, enough ranting. Here is the …. CHART

eurusd_trade_closed_oanda_23april2009

One USDJPY trade 22-April-2009

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At the end of Tuesday U.S session, I saw a nice short setup in USDJPY. Classical text-book pattern to me, and offered me 1:2 R/R. 

Short position was established, profit target was achieved at the mid day of Asian session. Not too bad with +2R gain.

Here is the…CHART! Well, forget about the MACD, I was just too lazy to remove it.

usdjpy_22_april_2009

Trading idea: EURUSD Long 21-April-2009

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Firstly, the NZDUSD pattern failed last night, so, no trade was taken. Dollar had a good day, and it actually brought EURUSD back to daily support zone. I see opportunities to get in some Long positions. Orders are pending now, waiting for entry setup. Let’s see how it goes.  1:3 R/R setup. 

Anyway, here is what I see. Here ……….CHART!

eurusd_4hr_21april2009